Thread by @shayshinecastle

COVID briefing: "We are seeing some good news," says Lexi Nolen, "but we're not out of the woods yet."

Transmission is still high, according to the numbers: documents.bouldercolorado.gov/WebLink/DocVie…

In fact, cases are outpacing the ability of tracing/tracking, according to Slide 9. And our health systems are strained.

127 cases per 100,000 ppl in BoCo currently. Trending down slightly, but again, still high according to CDC metrics.

"What we are really looking for is to see if the cold weather is going to change that trajectory," Nolen says.

*If* current trends continue for another 6 weeks, the indoor mask order could go away, Nolen says.

"I have to present this good news with some caution," Nolen says. Because cases might not trend down. In fact, that's often the case, she says.

BoCo's transmission is better than other Colo counties. Weld County is 2X as high; Grand is, like, 5X higher.

That matters, Nolen says, bc ppl travel/move about.

Highest case rate by age demo are kids 0-11 y.o., in BoCo and Colorado. (BoCo lower than other counties)

"Our kids are taking it pretty hard right now," Nolen says.

They are too young to be vaccinated at this point; vaccine for kids yet to be approved.

Important to remember when we discuss unvaccinated folks: It's not all ppl who *won't* get vaccinated. Many can't. Including literal children.

ICU staff and beds are extremely tight in Boulder, Weld counties. 9% of ICU beds are staffed AND available. 11% of med/surg beds are staffed and available. 23% of hospitals are reporting "significant staff shortages," Nolen says.

"Our hospitals are mainly responding to counties with v high case rates right now," Nolen says. "That has been the biggest strain on them."

On top of COVID, apparently there's a lot of RSV in the community, according to Nolen. (It's a virus that affects kids.)

Some hospitals have postponed or cancelled non-emergent surgeries/procedures.

OK, Correction from Nolen RE: the earlier tweet where she said Boulder and Weld county hospitals — that should not include Weld but *does* include hospitals in other northern CO counties (Gilpin, Larimer, etc.)

"We are almost back to normal, non-surge response in our epidemiology team," Nolen says. (Contact tracing, etc.) "We're looking forward to that."

11 deaths in BoCo since June 2021. Unvaccinated folks, Nolen says.

"We want to make sure to emphasize to everybody that there are v few deaths occurring among folks who are fully vaccinated. It's the best protection someone can have."

"Not just against death," Nolen says, "but against outrageous hospital costs," family impacts, job impacts, etc.

Vax rates have "substantially dropped off" in BoCo. "We really need folks who have not gotten vaccinated yet to get vaxed. Now is the time."

We anticipate the next few weeks 5-11 y.o. becoming eligible to be vaccinated, Nolen says, so things will start to get busy. Book your appointment now.

69.1% of all BoCo residents vaxed
77.9% of eligible residents are vaxed

Please talk to your family and friends, Nolen says. Encourage them to get vaxed, to call us and make an informed decision "that's based in reality."

Vax clinics and town halls still being offered "for folks who need a little support getting there," Nolen says.

Yates: The data shows that ppl are getting one shot but not two. Why?
Nolen: They are getting the second, but there's a lag time, which is what the data is showing. Sometimes ppl are waiting longer, like 6 weeks. But it's consistent that they are getting the second one.

Yates: We're later discussing going back to IRL meetings in council chambers. Any advice? Should we mask? Require vaccines?

Nolen referencing a public health program to allow orgs, biz, workplaces, etc. to go without masks *if* they require vaccines.

Joseph: What's the timeline for lifting the indoor mask mandate?
Nolen: "We v intentionally designed it to stay in place ... any time we're above 'substantial' transmission. The way out ... is to go to places that are part of the vax verification program."

Nolen: "What you're really asking is when do we project we'll be out of substantial transmission. We can make educated guesses, but the reality is Delta caught us sitting back on our heels. There are a lot of things that make us nervous."

A lot of "ifs" in her answer; IF ppl stay masked now, IF they get vaxed, IF they don't send kids to school sick... maybe mid-December? Nolen says. "It's hard to predict."

Wallach: Does cold weather have a particular impact on COVID? What is the data showing us?
Nolen: "The biggest influence of cold weather is that ppl tend to go indoors more, and they tend to be more crowded."

The dryness can also increase spread for some respiratory viruses, Nolen says. Holidays can bring parties.

"There's an expectation now there could be another wave ... just like we saw last year."

Wallach: Children 0-11, how are they faring once they contract COVID?
Nolen: We don't see as many hospitalizations with children as with adults. "They do weather it better."

But school mask mandates are not being strictly enforced, Nolen says. We'd love to see better cooperation from parents and officials. "Some schools are more lenient with exemptions than we'd suggest."

"Those are the places we're seeing more cases," Nolen says. "This is not rocket science. This is pretty simple science."

"Every household should have them stockpiled in their homes for the next couple years," Nolen says of at-home COVID tests (a response to a Friend q). But they're hard to get. And ppl don't often report results to the state to be included in data.

Nolen: "It's a great thing to have on hand. They're not 100% accurate, but it's better than having nothing at all. And they're free."

That's the end of this COVID briefing. Until the next one, next month.

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