1/ Piper survey 10,000 US teens - some interesting stats on social media usage: Instagram continues to lead monthly usage, although falling, TikTok gaining. $SNAP remains favourite, improving its lead, TikTok second then Instagram 3rd favourite, losing 2 points.
2/ $PINS gender skew among teens higher than I'd have thought - 90% skew. TikTok 64% skewed to females. Discord most skewed to men at 77% followed by Twitter (67% male skew) then $FB (65% male skew). $SNAP most balanced gender usage.
3/ $SNAP best positioned for social commerce:
4/ $PINS user wallet spend over-indexes to clothing, personal care and fashion, under-indexes most to video games, electronics and cars.
5/ $FB The waning popularity of Instagram among US teens can be seen well in the graphic below - teens voting Insta as their favourite app has fallen from 35% in Fall 19 to 21% now:
6/ Re Daily video consumption, $NFLX still remains most popular with YouTube close second. Other streaming platforms nowhere.
7/ Streaming video now 94% of viewing vs cable at 6% - this was 71% to 29% back in Fall 2015:
8/ Putting social media and streaming video together we can see the top 5 ($NFLX, IG, $SNAP, YouTube & TikTok) dominate usage:
9/ Last slide - $AMZN continues to dominate teen e-commerce usage:
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1/ Iris Energy $IREN delivered a strong inaugural earnings presentation last night. Some takeaways in this thread...
This is clearly a company with huge growth ambitions and a very backable & professional team to deliver on them.
2/ I fully expect them to go well beyond the announced 15EH and become one of the largest players in the space in due course.
Some takeaways:
Something that stood out for me were the Long-term Target Options issued to the co-CEOs Dan and Will Roberts.
3/ They were issued 4.8m options between them in Sep 2021 with a 12 year life and an exercise price of $75, 5.2x the current share price ($14.28 as of 9 Feb 2022 close).
1/ Re $MARA I have had some good conversations with Charlie Schumacher their Director of Corporate Communications. Sharing some thoughts after the calls:
I'll start with putting my summary view up at the start of this (long) thread:
2/ If I model out $MARA run-rate revenue generation at a $50k BTC price, a 360EH Bitcoin network hash rate and 21EH of $MARA hashrate in early 2023 (this factors in 90% uptime vs stated 23.3 EH) I get $0.98bn in revenues and an EV/EBIT around 3.2x at that point.
3/ Which looks very cheap. Their scale advantage gives them a materially lower cost of capital vs peers which is v valuable in such a capital intensive industry & should continue to keep them right at the front of the queue when it comes to buying mining rigs at favourable terms.
1/ Re $BITF, I had a good conversation with CFO Jeffrey Lucas who joined in June 2021 and COO Geoff Morphy. Sharing some of my thoughts after the call:
2/ Summary thoughts: They are good operators delivering consistently strong monthly BTC mining results at very low cost and building out the infrastructure to support their 8EH by end 22 target.
3/ They trade at a notable discount to peers as I think the market overly penalises the company for perceived poor capital allocation and has not fully appreciated what a good deal they struck, renegotiating the cost of their 55,000 S19s to $38.50/ TH when the market was weak…
1/ Some helpful charts from Hayden Capital's 73 page piece on $COIN:
Users trade more frequently over time (grey is users trading 1x per month, blue is >5x per month):
2/ Number of global crypto users continued to grow despite the 50% fall in #BTC etc from April to June 21. #ETH user adoption continued rapid growth too.
3/ Table shows some exponential adoption metrics since Q2 2020 (note the $162bn DEX Volume shown in July 2020 should be May 2021):
1/ I've been wanting to learn about Polkadot $DOT, the layer 0 blockchain ecosystem founded by Gavin Wood @gavofyork who wrote the code for Ethereum.
2/ This video, recorded back in Jan 2021, is a great @RealVision interview with Gavin in which he explains the idea and how it all works. For anyone who wants to know about $DOT it's a great watch.
3/ I won't summarise it as there is a LOT of information contained in the 1 hour video but a few take-aways for me:
Ethereum technology was invented 6+ years ago now so Gavin thinks world ready for Blockchain 3.0 new technology.
1/ Brazilian Fintech co PagSeguro $PAGS put out operating results for Q3, with TPV growth of 85% and acquiring TPV growth of 49%, or up 58% ex the Corona voucher impact. They announced sequential growth of 1m PagBank active users, to 12.2m.
2/ If we put the PagBank business on the same valuation as Nubank's recent financing round (in which $BRK participated) at $30bn for 40m users that implies $9.15bn for PagBank's 12.2m users.
Haircut that by 20% for conservatism to get a $7.23bn valuation.
3/ Take that off PAGS market cap of $14.8bn to get a valuation of $7.5bn for the core merchant acquiring business.
2022 consensus is for $465m net income, and PagBank & the SMB Hubs investments should breakeven in that year so gives a pretty clean read on core biz consensus.