Even by its own spotty accounting, #SouthSudan has grossed some $15B in oil revenues since independence.
Where does it all go?
New @CrisisGroup report on South Sudan's ruined oil finances, poisoned politics, and why the push for reforms isn't working.
crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
Where does it all go?
New @CrisisGroup report on South Sudan's ruined oil finances, poisoned politics, and why the push for reforms isn't working.
crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
@CrisisGroup Oil was central to #SouthSudan's case for independence.
At birth, South Sudan had a higher per capita GDP than all of its neighbors. The World Bank classified it as a middle income country.
At birth, South Sudan had a higher per capita GDP than all of its neighbors. The World Bank classified it as a middle income country.
Today, very little of #SouthSudan's oil money ever makes it to the official budget, even as huge outlays of outside aid helps feed the population.
crisisgroup.org/file/14239
crisisgroup.org/file/14239
What went wrong?
Oil helped create #SouthSudan but then destroyed its politics. The failure of South Sudanese elite to agree on a fairer system of sharing power and resources led to catastrophe.
Oil helped create #SouthSudan but then destroyed its politics. The failure of South Sudanese elite to agree on a fairer system of sharing power and resources led to catastrophe.
Oil remains at the heart of the crisis. #SouthSudan's violent political system revolves around access to this dwindling pot of revenues.
Meanwhile, the monopolization of these funds obstructs nearly all routes toward the deeper political settlement #SouthSudan needs.
Meanwhile, the monopolization of these funds obstructs nearly all routes toward the deeper political settlement #SouthSudan needs.
The war deepened the rot. The govt found ever exotic means of financing, including stealing from the future by pre-selling its crude -- the petrostate equivalent of payday loans.
At one point, only a few outside commercial firms supplied nearly all of #SouthSudan's money.
At one point, only a few outside commercial firms supplied nearly all of #SouthSudan's money.
What now?
Diplomats and activists push the govt to implement a laundry list of demands (65+ financial/resource reforms) included in the peace deal.
Donor powers have struggled to come up with a coordinated strategy besides one-off sanctions.
Diplomats and activists push the govt to implement a laundry list of demands (65+ financial/resource reforms) included in the peace deal.
Donor powers have struggled to come up with a coordinated strategy besides one-off sanctions.
Donor powers frequently gripe they can't find leverage in #SouthSudan.
Yet, in past year, the IMF gave #SouthSudan over $500M (!!) with few strings attached.
The govt is already struggling to account for how it spent the first $50m.
mofep-grss.org/wp-content/upl…
Yet, in past year, the IMF gave #SouthSudan over $500M (!!) with few strings attached.
The govt is already struggling to account for how it spent the first $50m.
mofep-grss.org/wp-content/upl…
So, where to start?
Anticorruption efforts are unlikely to make much headway until South Sudanese can -- at a bare minimum -- reliably see how much oil revenue the government receives, and where it goes.
This is the basis of public finances.
Anticorruption efforts are unlikely to make much headway until South Sudanese can -- at a bare minimum -- reliably see how much oil revenue the government receives, and where it goes.
This is the basis of public finances.
South Sudanese law requires all oil funds to be paid into a single public oil account, with regular public reporting of its activities.
Reformers should rally behind this demand. Donors also should focus available leverage, including IMF support, on such an oil account.
Reformers should rally behind this demand. Donors also should focus available leverage, including IMF support, on such an oil account.
Govts -- especially those sustaining humanitarian aid to #SouthSudan -- should also engage the commercial firms who purchase South Sudanese oil, and their bankers and insurers, to make sure they pay to this account and disclose what they pay.
And, finally. After all this, a much bigger question:
What to do with a failing petrostate in an era of decarbonisation? What is the future of #SouthSudan?
Read the full report (and a lot of maths and data and footnotes) here: crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
What to do with a failing petrostate in an era of decarbonisation? What is the future of #SouthSudan?
Read the full report (and a lot of maths and data and footnotes) here: crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
Here, added #SouthSudan’s own law on the matter:
https://twitter.com/alanboswell/status/1446129553949134849
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