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Alrighty. Amid all else: What would Bashir’s ouster mean for the new #SouthSudan peace deal, which Khartoum brokered? Let’s do this.
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#THREAD
First off, the big disclaimer. No one can say for sure until we know who, if anyone, takes clear control in Khartoum. Different scenarios = different effect on #SouthSudan peace process.
This happens WHILE KIIR AND MACHAR ARE MEETING AT THE VATICAN. Lordy, the timing. This is super significant, since Machar now faces a new array of options. Would he feel comfortable returning to Khartoum from Rome? If not, then where?
Important to remember that Khartoum brokered the peace deal, not Bashir alone. Things to watch: Does Salah Gosh -- its main architect -- remain, or go? Can a new govt quickly consolidate power or will this be a much messier transition?
In the short term: There are no mediators. The peace deal is now firmly in Kiir and Machar's hands. More clearly than ever, it is now up to Kiir and Machar if they want to move the peace deal forward.
Sudan was the only country invested heavily in the #SouthSudan peace deal. There is no longer any clear broker to clear the path for a unity govt, scheduled for May.
Fortuitously (!), tho, Kiir and Machar are meeting face to face TODAY in the Vatican. In the absence of any remaining mediators, this may be D Day for the #SouthSudan peace deal. Events in Sudan may force their hands. This only moves forward if both want it to.
Neither Kiir nor Machar agreed to the peace deal merely out of coercion. Both have reasons to continue ahead. Machar, however, needs further concessions from Kiir. At a minimum he needs clarity from Kiir on his security in Juba.
Machar faces major new risks. Bashir was his 'last friend' left in the region. Machar's game plan of waiting in Khartoum to try and force more concessions from Juba may no longer be on the table.
This could head in two opposing directions. a) Kiir and Machar forced by events to move this forward on their own terms. b) Without Sudan in the picture, Machar effectively opts out and waits for a new broker.
If the peace deal stalls and no unity govt in May: How long can the #SouthSudan ceasefire hold amid a 'pre-transition' without clear end? Can IGAD be bothered to finish brokering the unity govt? Will internationals get their act together, coordinate, and re-engage?
If Machar returns to Addis, instead of Khartoum -- Can Abiy be convinced to take this up? Does Museveni accept that? Does Khartoum, whoever is in charge, accept that? Can donors -- led by US/EU -- empower a lead envoy to shuttle across the region working on this?
Many questions! What did I miss??
Revisiting, one day later: If Auf and co. consolidate power, then #Sudan’s interests in #SouthSudan peace deal won’t change. But a) Khartoum will be weak and distracted in near-term, leaving role as broker much in doubt b) Riek may not return to Khartoum, which, ditto.
