The Yom Kippur War broke out 48 years ago today. Egypt and Syria attacked Israel by surprise on the holiest day of the Jewish calendar. Israel found itself on the brink of defeat. A few observations follow, with relevance today: history.com/topics/middle-…
1. Israel was vulnerable to attack then, and it is still vulnerable today. It’s small size and proximity to enemies means that it must always be vigilant, even pro-active.
2. Intelligence failures happened then, and still happen now. The Middle East is still hard to predict.
3. American officials cynically withheld military assistance to try and gain leverage. Israel was nearly pushed to take measures that would have literally changed the map of the Middle East. Take note, Hamas Caucus.
4. Golda Meir failed hard. History treats her too kindly,
5. A multi-front war is a terrible scenario for Israel. It can happen again, particularly with Hamas in the South, Hezbollah in the North, and other Iran-backed proxies in Syria, not to mention missiles from Iran itself.
Iran will be the driver of the next multi-front war.
6. The scars of the 1973 war are surprisingly fresh for Israel. Some 2,500 Israelis were killed and 3 times that were injured. For a grueling TV series that helps drive home this tough chapter in Israeli history, I recommend HBO’s Valley of Tears. (End)
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I’ve been watching hot takes on Biden-Israel for days. Slow down, folks. A few observations:
1. Biden gave Israel full freedom to operate against Hamas. He didn’t equivocate. It was full support. Full stop.
2. The president’s tough talk with Bibi only started after the ceasefire was announced. It was a blank check to signal to the angry, progressive left that he was being tough on Israel.
3. Yes, Biden touted the 80 phone calls his administration made during the course of the war. But he made no serious investment to end the conflict. Hady Amr, a DAS, was the most senior US envoy. Reality: Biden left it to Egypt and other regional states to solve
Bibi now live to Israel, touting damage to the “metro” system of Hamas, and other military capabilities, while endeavoring to minimizing casualties. Says that bringing calm will take time. Thanks Biden and other leaders for support.
Bibi notes a drop in violence from the Arab community in Israel. This was an area of grave concern when it began. Notes the need to engage with the Arab community after this. The right message here, IMHO.
Now Gantz: also underscores that operations against Hamas will continue, but stressed the need to take the temperature down at home. Sensing a theme here...
Israeli channel 13 broadcasts the flattening of a Gaza building that the IDF determined to be a Hamas asset.
This appears to be the building that housed the AP & Jazeera bureaus....
This was apparently the building that Israeli reporters earlier noted that received warnings, cell phone messages and a “knock-knock” munition, warning of an imminent strike.
OK, tweeps. It's Thanksgiving. Otherwise known as Turkey Day So it's time for my annual thread on Turkey...
Turkey remains a hugely problematic NATO and US ally. From domestic oppression at home to illicit finance and support for terrorism and rogue states abroad, this is an ally in name only. And one gets a sense that the tensions with the US may reach a boiling point soon.
Turkey's terrorism problem first popped up on my radar with the 2010 @IHHen flotilla to Gaza. The organization has long been flagged as having ties to terrorism. I noted those ties here: washingtonexaminer.com/weekly-standar…