Thread by @ProfDanSmith

Dynasties continue to dominate Japan's top leadership. My post for @monkeycageblog on new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his cabinet. Bonus 🧵 1/11 #JapanDecides2021 #dynasticpolitics @ColumbiaSIPA @Columbia_APEC @ColumbiaCJEB

https://twitter.com/monkeycageblog/status/1445691343527813122

Kishida was elected Japan's 100th PM (64th individual in the post) on Monday. He's a third-generation politician, following his father and grandfather into politics. He defeated another "legacy" politician, Taro Kono, in the LDP's presidential runoff last week. 2/11

Kishida pledged to “regenerate” the LDP: “We have to show the general public that the LDP has been reborn.” This goal is partly reflected in his cabinet picks: old-guard ministers like Taro Aso are out, and 13 of 20 appointees are first-timers. 3/11 asahi.com/ajw/articles/1…

But in the LDP, "generational change" often means swapping out fathers for their sons, daughters, and other relatives. Aso, for example, has been replaced as finance minister by his brother-in-law, Shunichi Suzuki, who is also the son of former PM Zenko Suzuki. 4/11

Including Kishida, 9 cabinet ministers come from political dynasties, and 3 others have relatives in local politics or who followed them into office. In other words, for 57% of the new Kishida cabinet, politics is a family affair. 5/11

This is in keeping with patterns I document in my 2018 book, Dynasties and Democracy (@stanfordpress, @StanfordSAPARC). While the share of dynasties in the LDP is around 30%, they are overrepresented in cabinet, capturing as much as 60% of posts. 6/11 sup.org/books/title/?i…

Part of the reason is seniority: many LDP MPs who are now in a position to get promoted were first elected in the 1990s, before electoral reform reduced the party's reliance on legacy candidates. But seniority alone doesn't explain the advantage. 7/11

In a paper at @LSQjournal, @shane_martin and I argue that informational advantages within parties might also help legacy MPs get promoted, especially those whose predecessors previously served in cabinet. 8/11 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

In Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, Norway, & Japan, MPs with a family history in cabinet are significantly more likely to get promoted, even controlling for seniority. This suggests that informational advantages, like better networks, matter (but more work is needed). 9/11

A take-away lesson is that if Kishida aspires to real generational change in the LDP, he should continue to create opportunities for younger members––which include fewer legacy MPs––to access channels of information, socialization, and influence within the party. 10/11

More explanation, and links to additional scholarly work on the topic, in the post! 11/11 @FaridaJalalzai @shane_martin @BrianDFeinstein @laderafrutal @OlleFolke @johannarickne washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…