1/ Thread: Value of fintwit

Since we are seeing some exodus (temporary or permanent) from fintwit, I want to share how I perceive the value of fintwit to me and perhaps many of you.

Before I get into that, some brief reminders on life before fintwit (or social media).
2/ What has always stunned me about Buffett and Munger is their ability to stay in the great game of investing.

How do you play such an intensely competitive form of endeavor for decade after decade? Why did they enjoy longevity?
3/ There are certainly more than one reasons. One of my thesis is they both enjoyed longevity in this great game of investing because of each other.

It was just easier to show up. It was easier not to get bored. It was easier to forget how much you love this game.
4/ But when did they meet? In 1959.

Buffett was 29 and Munger was 35 years old.

What is the probability "Buffett" would find "Munger" in those formative years in Omaha, Nebraska in '50s-'60s? Low, very low.
5/ Buffett and Munger had to be incredibly lucky to find each other. It is clear as day how much they enjoy each other's company.

They each may still be super wealthy without meeting the other, but their lives would be far less fun, and who knows they might stop showing up.
6/ Today, each of us has much, much higher probability of meeting our "Buffett or "Munger" when the whole fintwit is built on top of our interest graph.

It's easy to underappreciate this super power if you are surrounded by investing geniuses in real life.
7/ But the vast majority of us is NOT surrounded by investing geniuses.

Not a single person in my entire family is remotely interested in investing. *Almost* nobody in my social circle is interested in investing.

It's been lonely journey before I found fintwit.
8/ I have met and talked to people from fintwit with whom I could literally talk for days without allowing silence to encroach in our conversation.

I did feel like a kid in a candy store at times.
9/ And because these relationships are based on our content and interest, there is a sense of mutual respect even if the person on the other side is legitimately 10x better than you are.

It's a special feeling and hard to create in real world as quickly as you can online.
10/ Fintwit is a BIG community. Just like any community, you'll find people you like, admire, hate, and be indifferent to.

Of course, we can all feel jaded at times, just as we do in real life. It's normal and a break may be warranted at times.
End/ But let's not miss the forest for the trees.

Just it was the recipe for longevity for Buffett and Munger, the most important thing is to keep showing up. Most things usually work out pretty well if you just show up.

Enjoy your weekend, fintwit! ❤️

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More from @borrowed_ideas

22 Sep
1/ $ETSY bear concerns

One of my followers recently mentioned to me a bear case for Etsy and asked me to take a look at 2020 10-k.

Let me first briefly mention his bear case and then share my thoughts.
2/ The crux of the bear case lies on the noticeable drop in year 2 of 2017 buyer cohort.

Unlike the cohorts in 2013-16 when buyer retention was hovering around 40-45%, 2017 cohort had ~35% retention.
3/ Let me first acknowledge that I didn't notice this before the follower mentioned it to me.

Why?

When I wrote my deep dive, I had 2019 10-k in hand, so the cohort data I saw had until 2016 buyer cohorts. While I scrolled 2020 10-k before, I didn't notice this drop.
Read 11 tweets
20 Sep
1/ Owning stocks vs businesses

It is "Investing 101" that when you buy a stock, you are essentially owner of a business. I know this and liberally parrot it to anyone who wants to listen.

I realized a few months ago that I myself never probably walked the talk. Thread.
2/ This finally occurred to me when an interested buyer showed up to take a minority stake (~20-30%) in "MBI Deep Dives".

As I own 100% ownership of MBI Deep Dives, I finally had to think about valuing my own business.
3/ The buyer wasn't a random rich person trying to buy a stake, but a strategic one who I believe could unlock value.

But considering I just launched my business in September 2020, I was initially at best lukewarm since it just felt too early to "value" my biz.
Read 15 tweets
10 Sep
1/ Thread: Investing only in bull markets

I started investing in 2013. Not in the US, but in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh market reached a stratospheric level in 2010 which is yet to be crossed after 11 years. The index is still ~20% below 2010 peak.
2/ I was a Senior in college in 2013 and decided to major in Finance. I thought I should get into investing.

When I started, the market experienced ~60% drawdown. Even though I had no clue what I was doing, it was hard to go wrong when you invest in such a market.
3/ After graduation, I got a job in research which definitely helped me understand investing a bit better.

Bangladesh market is almost entirely driven by retail investors as institutional investor base is pretty weak. In fact, most institutional investors behave like retail.
Read 13 tweets
9 Sep
1/ Thread: $LULU 2Q'22 Update

"I am pleased to share that we will surpass our 2023 revenue target by the end of this year, 2 years ahead of schedule." 👀

2Q'22 topline $1.5 Bn (guidance $1.3-1.33 Bn) which is 28% 2-yr CAGR. No wonder the stock was +14% AH.

Here are my notes.
2/ Company operated stores

+142% YoY, but misleading due to store closure last yr. 2-yr CAGR +9% vs flat expectation

Store productivity now at par with 2019 level.

~95% stores open now (most store closure in Australia and NZ)

28 net new store open in LTM
3/ DTC/E-com

+4% YoY which is pretty impressive given last yr's +157% YoY growth

2-yr CAGR +66% vs expectation +55%
Read 13 tweets
26 Aug
1/ $ADSK FY 2Q'22 Update

Another decent quarter, but FCF guidance for full year is slightly softer than earlier which perhaps led the stock to ~7% decline in AH. But after listening to the call, any potential concern related to FCF should evaporate.

Here are my notes.
2/ Revenue met high end of the guidance for the quarter. Low end of the topline guidance for the full year was increased, and so did margins.

But as mentioned earlier, FCF mid-point guidance for FY decreased from $1.61 Bn to $1.54 Bn.
3/ Why did FCF guidance fall?

ADSK used to have multi-year Enterprise Business Agreement (EBA) for which they would get paid cash upfront, but in exchange EBAs would receive ~10% discount.

ADSK is still doing multi-year EBAs, but switching to annual billings, so less cash...
Read 12 tweets
21 Aug
1/ Rate of change in technology

“It isn’t that I don’t understand software products, but I don’t know how that industry is going to develop over 10 or 20 years… so anything that’s rapidly developing that has lots of change embodied in it, by my definition, I won’t understand.”
2/ Two companies that I recently studied ( $CRWD and $ROKU) reminded me of that Buffett quote.

Both are run by founders, have executed incredibly well over last few years and enjoyed secular tailwinds on their back. They were nimble, aggressive, and eating incumbents’ share.
3/ Both companies are valued in a way that assumes they will coast through the next 5-10 years.

But when you look at the rate of change in their respective industries, it makes you think whether such assumptions will indeed hold.
Read 14 tweets

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