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Mostly Borrowed Ideas

@borrowed_ideas

25 Sep

1/ Thread: Value of fintwit

Since we are seeing some exodus (temporary or permanent) from fintwit, I want to share how I perceive the value of fintwit to me and perhaps many of you.

Before I get into that, some brief reminders on life before fintwit (or social media).

2/ What has always stunned me about Buffett and Munger is their ability to stay in the great game of investing.

How do you play such an intensely competitive form of endeavor for decade after decade? Why did they enjoy longevity?

3/ There are certainly more than one reasons. One of my thesis is they both enjoyed longevity in this great game of investing because of each other.

It was just easier to show up. It was easier not to get bored. It was easier to forget how much you love this game.

Read 11 tweets

Mostly Borrowed Ideas

@borrowed_ideas

22 Sep

1/ $ETSY bear concerns

One of my followers recently mentioned to me a bear case for Etsy and asked me to take a look at 2020 10-k.

Let me first briefly mention his bear case and then share my thoughts.

2/ The crux of the bear case lies on the noticeable drop in year 2 of 2017 buyer cohort.

Unlike the cohorts in 2013-16 when buyer retention was hovering around 40-45%, 2017 cohort had ~35% retention.

3/ Let me first acknowledge that I didn't notice this before the follower mentioned it to me.

Why?

When I wrote my deep dive, I had 2019 10-k in hand, so the cohort data I saw had until 2016 buyer cohorts. While I scrolled 2020 10-k before, I didn't notice this drop.

Read 11 tweets

Mostly Borrowed Ideas

@borrowed_ideas

20 Sep

1/ Owning stocks vs businesses

It is "Investing 101" that when you buy a stock, you are essentially owner of a business. I know this and liberally parrot it to anyone who wants to listen.

I realized a few months ago that I myself never probably walked the talk. Thread.

2/ This finally occurred to me when an interested buyer showed up to take a minority stake (~20-30%) in "MBI Deep Dives".

As I own 100% ownership of MBI Deep Dives, I finally had to think about valuing my own business.

3/ The buyer wasn't a random rich person trying to buy a stake, but a strategic one who I believe could unlock value.

But considering I just launched my business in September 2020, I was initially at best lukewarm since it just felt too early to "value" my biz.

Read 15 tweets

Mostly Borrowed Ideas

@borrowed_ideas

10 Sep

1/ Thread: Investing only in bull markets

I started investing in 2013. Not in the US, but in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh market reached a stratospheric level in 2010 which is yet to be crossed after 11 years. The index is still ~20% below 2010 peak.

2/ I was a Senior in college in 2013 and decided to major in Finance. I thought I should get into investing.

When I started, the market experienced ~60% drawdown. Even though I had no clue what I was doing, it was hard to go wrong when you invest in such a market.

3/ After graduation, I got a job in research which definitely helped me understand investing a bit better.

Bangladesh market is almost entirely driven by retail investors as institutional investor base is pretty weak. In fact, most institutional investors behave like retail.

Read 13 tweets

Mostly Borrowed Ideas

@borrowed_ideas

9 Sep

1/ Thread: $LULU 2Q'22 Update

"I am pleased to share that we will surpass our 2023 revenue target by the end of this year, 2 years ahead of schedule." 👀

2Q'22 topline $1.5 Bn (guidance $1.3-1.33 Bn) which is 28% 2-yr CAGR. No wonder the stock was +14% AH.

Here are my notes.

2/ Company operated stores

+142% YoY, but misleading due to store closure last yr. 2-yr CAGR +9% vs flat expectation

Store productivity now at par with 2019 level.

~95% stores open now (most store closure in Australia and NZ)

28 net new store open in LTM

3/ DTC/E-com

+4% YoY which is pretty impressive given last yr's +157% YoY growth

2-yr CAGR +66% vs expectation +55%

Read 13 tweets

Mostly Borrowed Ideas

@borrowed_ideas

26 Aug

1/ $ADSK FY 2Q'22 Update

Another decent quarter, but FCF guidance for full year is slightly softer than earlier which perhaps led the stock to ~7% decline in AH. But after listening to the call, any potential concern related to FCF should evaporate.

Here are my notes.

2/ Revenue met high end of the guidance for the quarter. Low end of the topline guidance for the full year was increased, and so did margins.

But as mentioned earlier, FCF mid-point guidance for FY decreased from $1.61 Bn to $1.54 Bn.

3/ Why did FCF guidance fall?

ADSK used to have multi-year Enterprise Business Agreement (EBA) for which they would get paid cash upfront, but in exchange EBAs would receive ~10% discount.

ADSK is still doing multi-year EBAs, but switching to annual billings, so less cash...

Read 12 tweets

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