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Kalu Aja

@FinPlanKaluAja1

4 Oct

You want a strong currency, you export.

Nigeria technically has no exports apart from oil. This data map is 2019, and Cocoa is a "rounding error".

Keep in mind, Exports are NOT the only way to get forex, but so far, on exports, the nation has failed.

Data Source: Harvard KSG

It gets worse.

"Nigeria's⁩ largest goods exports are in ⁨low and moderate⁩ complexity products"

translation? anyone can export crude oil, the wealth is in adding value to the crude oil or cocoa exports

"Diversifying the economy" is all talk

The Nigeria economy is diversified, Oil is less than 15% of GDP. Problem is Nigeria has only one export source of Forex. Remove remittances, the Nigeria Naira will collapse.

The data shows Nigeria has put all its eggs in the oil basket

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Kalu Aja

@FinPlanKaluAja1

27 Sep

lets talk fx reserves

See the box on left called "Oil Revenues"?

When Nigeria sells Crude oil, it's paid to a JP Morgan/NNPC/CBN account in USD $

CBN then buys the $ from the Federation and gives the Federation account Naira. CBN then owns the Fx reserves, NOT the Federation

CBN's mandate is to maintain foreign reserves to promote monetary and price stability.

How? via Monetary means, it setting interest rates and exchange rates.
CBN really is very concerned with inflation, it wants it to stay low, it keeps it low by making cash "expensive"

If CBN believes inflation is going up? it raises rates (MPR) this makes cash expensive to get i.e bank interest.

if CBN want to boost the economy, it drops rates (MPR) this makes cash "cheap" to get so SMEs can grow

Read 7 tweets

Kalu Aja

@FinPlanKaluAja1

27 Sep

Many hold economic views because of urban legends that are not factual.

I asked who sets exchange rates....CBN or NAFEX?..many voted CBN.

Many think SAP caused the problem, they don't realize SAP was the adjustment to fix the imported consumption that caused the problem

Some believe that a strong economy means a strong currency, yet China, Japan, Germany all exporters, all seek weak currencies, and Nigeria also exports her main produce in $.

Many prefer $1 to N1 to $1 to N500 because they can import cheaper, but net imports make you poorer.

Many believe the Foreign Reserves are savings, they they are owned and can be spent by the President.

They can't connect FPI to the reserves. They can't connect a strong Naira to the reserves.

Many don't understand the Naira a a 'derivative" of crude oil

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Kalu Aja

@FinPlanKaluAja1

26 Sep

The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) is a Medium-Term Plan for 2017 – 2020, for the purpose of restoring economic growth while leveraging the ingenuity and resilience of the Nigerian people – the nation’s most priceless assets.

let us review it together.

"The ERGP has set a GDP growth target of 4.62 percent average annual growth between 2017 and 2020."

Economic growth has not approached 4% since 2017.

"The implementation of the Plan is projected to reduce unemployment from 13.9% as of Q3 2016 to 11.23% by 2020. This translates to the creation of over 15 million jobs during the Plan horizon or an average of 3.7 million jobs per annum. "

The unemployment rate is up

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Kalu Aja

@FinPlanKaluAja1

25 Sep

Croissant about N824

Minimum wage N993,600 a month

(40 hrs a week, N414 exchange rate)

The issue is not just the exchange rate but the minimum wage. This is an entry level position with no experience required

The minimum wage in Nigeria is low, can't afford even a $1 to N414

However minimum wage can't rise until productivity rises, you can't pay an elevator operator in Nigeria N900k a month.

At N35,000 a month minimum wage, consumption is suboptimal.

Productivity improvements cause wages to rise.

So who do you raise productivity?

To improve productivity is to do more with same or less.

E.g mechanized agriculture with all year irrigation & better seeds, raises yield per plot, makes farmers richer.

Richer farmers spend more, more demand creates more jobs to meet demand, and a positive cycle develops.

Read 4 tweets

Kalu Aja

@FinPlanKaluAja1

25 Sep

Review of the Nigerian Economy Q1 2021

Total Imports: N6.85t
Total Exports: N2.90t

Trade Deficit of N3.94t

As Nigeria imports more, the currency gets weaker as more N is needed to buy same $.

This is why Naira sells for N570 in the black market

Let's talk exports....

Crude oil exports : 66%
Non oil export: 33%

Nigeria is still a mono export nation. This means that fx earnings are tied tightly to only one product, crude oil and gas.

Let's talk debt

Local debt: Increase of N490b
Foreign debt: Decrease of $488m

Nigeria is exposed to

Multinational 54%
Wall Street (Eurobond) 32%
None Paris Bilateral 12%

Watch the Eurobonds, that's the most expensive component.

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