This Diamond article (jp) on Abe as a new "shadow shogun" merits close reading. diamond.jp/articles/-/283…
The first two pages (of five) mostly summarize how Abe made Kishida's victory possible, but on page three, @KamikuboMasato, a political scientist at Ritsumeikan, delves into the sources of Abe's power and what's different from, say, Tanaka Kakuei as shadow shogun.
@KamikuboMasato He argues that whereas Tanaka's power rested on factional strength -- rooted in the multi-member districts -- factions don't provide the same source of power.
Instead, Abe has successfully placed allies in the posts that control personnel decisions, distribute funds, nominate candidates, manage the PM's agenda and information flow, etc.
He notes Abe's influence over the junior MPs elected under his leadership, but I would also add that he has loyal allies in high places because he *has* a network of allies with the seniority to fill such posts.
He also adds that the significance of Abe's influence is less in his conservatism than in the continuation of what he calls "socialistic" and pragmatic economic policy that limits opposition's ability to offer alternatives.
He suggests that while the LDP's conservatives can't be ignored in the LDP's leadership election, they matter less as a general election constituency and therefore the ability to offer pragmatic economic policies will be important.
It's definitely worth reading this analysis, although given the stresses that Kishida will be under on national security policy post-election, it's going to be harder for him to pay lip service to the right (as he says Abe did, not without reason).
Also, this is another argument in favor of there being more continuity than change from Abe to Kishida on economic policy. For whatever reason, conventional wisdom -- at least outside of Japan -- grossly underappreciated Abe's statism.
Yes, Kishida is offering some new slogans and proposals (that may or may not be politically feasible, i.e. capital gains tax hike) but decisive break it's not.
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