Here are some of the key takeaways from Kishida's policy speech Friday:

kantei.go.jp/jp/100_kishida… (jp)
(Not sure the provisional English translation is available yet)
1) His New Japanese capitalism is a still a work in progress and I still don't see much difference from Abenomics. He offers 8 (!) pillars divided between a "growth strategy" and "redistribution strategy."
Growth strategy: (1) "realizing science and technology nation," revamping education & boosting investment in advanced technologies; (2) regional revitalization resting on digitalization; (3) economic security; (4) a economic security for 100-year lifespans (working styles, etc.).
Redistribution: (1) strengthening stakeholder capitalist institutions instead of just shareholder, better conditions for suppliers: (2) building a middle class, which looks like Abe's social security for all generations; (3) raising pay for nursing care, childcare workers; (cont)
(4) Under heading of "ending single-year budgeting," mix of policies he wants to have multi-year plans (mostly related to the above). Pork-barrel stuff here: support for high-value-added ag, rice producers, infrastructure building (shinkansen + highways). Also growth via tourism.
I just don't see that much that's different from eight years of Abenomics in that mix. It is too early, for example, to expect that he will do as @michaelxpettis suggests here:
In national security, there's three pillars: (1) promoting universal values; (2) defending Japan's peace and stability; (3) leading efforts to address global challenges. There's also a loosely grouped fourth pillar, "tricky bilateral relationships" for lack of a better term.
The first pillar is basically a new heading for Abe's "diplomacy that takes a panoramic perspective of the world map," relationship building with Quad, Europe, ASEAN, to uphold democracy, rule of law, human rights.
The second is hard security with standard phrasing:
我が国の平和と安定を守り抜く覚悟です。我が国を取り巻く安全保障環境が一層厳しさを増す中、我が国の領土、領海、領空、そして、国民の生命と財産を断固として守り抜きます
Pledges to update national security strategy, national defense program guidelines, mid-term defense plan. Also strengthening coast guard, missile defense. Naturally stresses importance of US-Japan alliance.
Also tries to square circle between strengthening deterrence and dialogue and securing trust from local communities, esp. in Okinawa, while also recommitting to current realignment plan.
On North Korea, he says, DPRK's missile developments are absolutely unacceptable but also calls for comprehensive solution of problems with eye towards normalization. Calls for return of all abductees as soon as possible. Pledges to meet with Kim Jong Un without precondition.
In the third pillar, he wants to raise Japan's global presence by leading in fight against global challenges, starting -- not surprisingly given his Hiroshima roots -- with ending nuclear weapons.
Also pledges to continue leadership on global trade integration begun under Abe, specifically refers to digital trade integration under the Osaka track "digital free flow with trust" (DFFT) rules.
Threads needle on China. Stable bilateral relationship important for region and world. Japan will work with like-minded countries to "stress what needs to be stressed" to encourage China to act responsibly. But wants dialogue, cooperation on issues of mutual concern.
Few specifics on how he'll approach Russia beyond stating that there can be no peace treaty without territorial resolution. Nothing on whether he'll continue Abe's support for economic engagement before territorial settlement or demand less than all four islands.
Two disappointing lines on South Korea: South Korea is an important neighbor. But the onus is wholly on Seoul: "In order to restore a healthy relationship, we strongly urge the South Korean side to take appropriate measures based on Japan's consistent position."
I should mention that this first section was on Covid-19. Most noteworthy is that he tried to sound a more somber tone despite falling case numbers. In bigger picture, wants to address crisis management bottlenecks, strengthen domestic capacity for drug and vaccine production.
In the conclusion, he also mentions constitutional revision, but fundamentally he doesn't say anything different than Abe. Defers to the political reality that all parties and the public need to be engaged in a constructive debate.
And yes, also closes with a proverb being discussed today: If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.

As @Okumura_Jun i, "going far together" not a bad characterization of Abe II. (And "going fast alone" was very much Abe I.)
Except that I think during Abe II they was a recognition that going together often meant settling for less. I recall a conversation with someone who explained Abe's willingness to settle for less than a full loaf.
Final thought on what he said about the ROK. Basically, a dovish prime minister who simultaneously needed the right wing's support to win and is not entirely trusted by the right wing is a bearish condition for any improvement in Japan-ROK relations.
The outlook ain't great for whoever is the prime minister, but the above conditions do not lend themselves to Kishida taking risks to improve the bilateral relationship.

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More from @observingjapan

8 Oct
In the acknowledgements of THE ICONOCLAST, I made a point of thanking several high school teachers who made a deep impression upon me.

Today I learned that Chris Schwarz, the first name listed, passed away after a battle with cancer.
He was my AP European History teacher, but I first got to know him when he was my freshman baseball coach. I was the nerd who read on the bus to and from games; I think he felt protective of me. Over the next several years, we struck up a rapport.
By the time I was actually became his student as a senior, it was like we were old friends.
Read 7 tweets
8 Oct
This Diamond article (jp) on Abe as a new "shadow shogun" merits close reading. diamond.jp/articles/-/283…
The first two pages (of five) mostly summarize how Abe made Kishida's victory possible, but on page three, @KamikuboMasato, a political scientist at Ritsumeikan, delves into the sources of Abe's power and what's different from, say, Tanaka Kakuei as shadow shogun.
@KamikuboMasato He argues that whereas Tanaka's power rested on factional strength -- rooted in the multi-member districts -- factions don't provide the same source of power.
Read 10 tweets
4 Oct
My profile of Prime Minister Kishida has now been published at @ForeignPolicy.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/04/fum…
I really wanted to answer the question of what it even means to be a liberal in the LDP of 2021 and how Kishida has tried to answer that question over the course of his career.
As the Sakurai Yoshiko column I discussed (see thread below) shows, the right wing is skeptical of the party's liberals and will be watching Kishida closely.

Read 5 tweets
4 Oct
In case you're wondering how the right wing is welcoming Kishida to office, Sankei has quite the rant from leading right-wing opinion maker Sakurai Yoshiko.

sankei.com/article/202110… (paywalled)
First, she calls Kishida's remarks on overseas strike capabilities during the leadership campaign extremely significant, given the "antimilitarist" history of his Kochi-kai.
She says that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan shows that the international security system is now becoming a coalition of countries that includes Japan -- but Japan is constrained from normal military activities.
Read 24 tweets
4 Oct
Kishida not wasting any time at all. October 31 puts the opposition on its heels, treasures advantage of like honeymoon in the polls plus better chance of lower case numbers.
*takes* advantage
The thing to bear in mind that if he wins comfortably in the general election and can hold things together well enough to win the upper house elections next year, he'll have up to three years without an election (and with the snap election card up his sleeve).
Read 7 tweets
26 Sep
With Kishida seemingly well-positioned to advance to the second round and possibly win the LDP's leadership, I guess it's time to take a closer look at him. #自民党総裁選挙 Image
While Kono's family is more famous, Kishida is no less of a dynastic politician.
His paternal grandfather was Kishida Masaki, the eldest son of an agricultural goods dealer from Hiroshima (who spent some time in colonial Taiwan and Manchuria).
Read 177 tweets

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