Thread by @balajis

Moderately bullish on India, extremely bullish on Indians.

Why? The Indian state itself is generally on the way up (see below), but it's often two steps forward and one step back.

However, it's now good enough to be a launchpad for globally competitive Indians — to achieve both within India, and outside it.
tigerfeathers.substack.com/p/the-internet…

The internet works, the power is on. That's all we needed to rise.

Roughly: China is centralized, India is decentralized.

China is pursuing a nationalist socialist strategy that is leading to less global mobility of Chinese citizens outside China, but (arguably) greater military power and coordination within China.

Unlike the Chinese state, the Indian state is increasingly competent but not globally threatening. So it can pursue an internationalist capitalist strategy, combining domestic + diaspora.

Can you do it at home? Great. Otherwise, go seek your fortunes abroad. And send money home.

China plays the world's best home game, but India plays a strong away game. How it may stack up:

- One leader vs a million CEOs
- Ethnostate vs international diaspora
- Great Firewall vs global internet
- CBDC vs cryptocurrency

Sinic centralization vs Dharmic decentralization?

An underestimated factor is that China's rise is causing problems for its diaspora and citizens abroad. Think about Meng Wanzhou, the drop in F-1 visas, the accusations of espionage. In some ways, China is becoming stronger at home but weaker abroad.
npr.org/2019/06/04/729…

It's not unidirectional. China is gaining international influence in Iran and many African countries even as it's losing it in parts of the West. But it's a money and infra-driven expansion. Effective in many ways, but not real cultural integration per se.
thediplomat.com/2021/09/irans-…

Where it could net out is that Chinese citizens may be welcome in places where China has hard power, and not where the US does.

Indian citizens by contrast may be more globally mobile. India leans West, but it's in both the Quad & SCO. So its diaspora may be less restricted...