The EU's proposals for addressing the problems in NI are substantive & far reaching. They will effectively do away with all paperwork for goods destined for NI - instead of a border in Irish Sea, think of a “green” (NI-bound) & “red” (Single Market) lane 1/
It has taken a lot of time & leadership from @MarosSefcovic & @vonderleyen to get Commission services & member states into line. Although EU capitals haven't seen the final package & all the details, they've been socialised with what's coming 2/
The Commission's ambition has been driven by 1) a desire to institute practical fixes to improve experience of citizens & businesses in NI, but also, importantly, 2) tactics 3/
If HMG now says “no/not enough”, it will be easier to rally member states behind a tough response, as @EU_Commission will be able to credibly claim it went “as far as it could”. EU unity will be key weapon in any ensuing standoff; these proposals make it more likely it'll hold 4/
Unsurprisingly, EU will offer no concessions on ECJ. For this reason alone, senior EU officials are resigned to fairly hostile response from @DavidGHFrost. This may come via A16 notification or “legal limbo” with ongoing negotiations & grace periods, where Protocol isn't applied
But EU officials are clear sighted about where both could lead: de facto, Ireland's place in Single Market being called into question. Put differently: they clearly see @BorisJohnson cynical calculation, that absent E-W checks, Bxl won't force Dublin to swallow a N-S border 6/
That calculation is, of course, correct. But I fear HMG is massively underestimating the likely EU response in these circumstances - circumstances where there would be growing pressure to institute checks & controls between Ireland & France & Ireland & other EU member states 7/
No German Chancellor or French President would side with HMG putting a member state in such an untenable situation. The v purpose of Single Market is to eliminate barriers between members. If UK's actions call that into question, the EU's response could be much more forceful 8/
Not a silly micro line-by-line tariff retaliation, but the *suspension of the entire zero tariff/zero quota deal*. There's a termination clause in TCA that can be triggered unilaterally: many in Bxl think a big simple move like this would be needed for UK to finally understand 9/
That this is existential. Recall “sequencing” in Brexit negotiations - WA/Irish border 1st, trade talks 2nd - existed precisely because EU wanted to ensure it locked down a solution to Irish border. If that's now being called into question by HMG, many think the TCA should be too
No WA, no TCA. Hard Brexit/WTO tariffs. The politics won't be easy. But many in Bxl rightly fear that once A16 is triggered, no British PM, let alone @BorisJohnson will be able to stand Protocol back up. With it will disappear the poss of a negotiated solution to Irish border 11/
Senior EU officials are VERY tired. They think HMG simply wants to “fight every day”. Still, EU will assume more risk & further bend Single Market for UK next week. HMG may not bite. But they should do so with an appreciation of the full consequences that then might follow ENDS
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
