Question: why do the Moderna and Pfizer jabs have to be kept at such low temperatures?
My understanding is that these are RNA strands encased in vesicles and at higher temperatures for too long they can escape the vesicles. Injected free RNA gets swept up so would be ineffective
Question: what is the difference between the Moderna and Pfizer jabs?
My understanding is that there may be some subtle differences in the exact RNA sequences, but the main difference is that the Moderna has 3-5x more RNA than the Pfizer
What if the lower concentrations on RNA in the jab means when administered outside of the well controlled trials a lot more of it is ineffective due to poor handling? Would Pfizer be less likely to actually deliver the RNA? Would side-effects be more in Moderna? So many question!
I don’t have answers and this is just speculating on nothing, but the scientist part of me wishes I still had access to a lab so I could do some testing and prove myself an idiot for even asking these questions. Maybe someone has the evidence to show my questions are idiotic!

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More from @connolly_s

11 Oct
Getting very interesting reports from Israel about the lack of differences between the case rates vs vax status in situations where everyone is tested irrespective of vax status. Would seem to indicate no difference in infection levels, only severity of symptoms.
Of course this would confirm a bias of mine in that I have long suspected that the difference in case rates for vax vs non-vax has just been an artifact of reduced symptoms and perception of superpowers resulting from the use of a term (vaccination) outside of traditional context
But then you hear that just after the analysis was published and the IMoH coincidentally decided to publish a massive retrospective update of the data in question! Anyway I’ll post more when I have more… Image
Read 9 tweets
24 Sep
So @waukema stumbled onto this. Seems there’s a H1N1 wave kicking off in Europe right now. That would indicate that Covid is a spent force as it’s stopped suppressing flu wdyt @FatEmperor @MLevitt_NP2013 source apps.who.int
And @waukema found more at flunewseurope.org now 60 samples is not a wave *yet* but we’ve seen nothing all year… is that because all test capacity was diverted to Covid or was it because one ILI suppresses the others until@it is a spent force… I guess we’ll find out soon
Here’s a normal year graph for comparison. Note this graph starts at week 47 whereas we are just at week 37 so while 60 is small compared to the 13,000 at week 7, waves grow from small starts
Read 9 tweets
21 Sep
Let's look at some data. 50% of the Irish population are day 60+. 10% day 120+. 4.3% day 180+. We currently have 13.5% of the population unvaccinated (including all 0-11yo). Consider medrxiv.org/content/10.110… even with is bias issues
The 4.3% vaccinated for more than 180 days -best case- have the same viral load as the 13.5% unvaccinated. That leaves 5.7% on days 120-180 with a Ct increase of 0.3 which corresponds to a viral load reduction of 19%. Then 40% on days 60-120 Ct increase of 0.7 or 39% lower load
Take a group of 20 people chosen at random (including 0-11yo). About 3 will be unvaxed. 1 will be 180+ days (same risk as unvax), 1 will be 120-180 days (81% risk), 8 will be 60-120 days (61% risk) so the 60+ days fully vax represent (1+0.81+8*0.61)/3=2.2x risk of unvaxed
Read 17 tweets
13 Sep
Some interesting questions about the new "active" and "serious" by age graph on the IMoH dashboard. Here's "active" cases and the verticle black line is when they changed the dataset they were reporting
Question 1: What has caused the surge in the population of unvaccinated people that the normalized figures have dropped. If it was that the partially vaccinated were now being counted then we would expect absolute cases for 12-15 to jump by 1400 but they fall slightly... not that
Question 2: Where did the 1400 active cases in 12-15yo disappear to? They're not added to the unvaccinated cases... they're not added to the vaccinated cases... they're not added to the 3rd shot vaccinated cases... these cases have magically disappeared
Read 12 tweets
10 Sep
Ok. So I finally automated my Z-score analysis of Israeli case data. I have yet to automate publishing the generated graphs to Twitter... but here comes 9 weeks of the same analysis methodology... so you can easily compare. First up 29th August to 4th September inclusive
2021-08-22 to 2021-08-28
2021-08-15 to 2021-08-21
Read 17 tweets
30 Aug
Latest Israeli cases analysis, and previous analysis revisited.

First a data health warning. I am basing the numbers in each dose using the published data on ages of vaccinated (data.gov.il/dataset/covid-…).

The readme (data.gov.il/dataset/covid-…) has this caveat. 🤷

(1/n)
With the new data on the 3rd dose I have had to rework the analysis, so the layout will be slightly different than previously. Also to try and limit information overload I only present Z-scores and P-values for selected comparisons against both unvax and 2 dose fully vax

(2/n)
Anyway, here's the data. Interpretation to follow...

(3/n)
Read 11 tweets

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