Thread by @tjayaraman

Deconstructing the new Climate Action Tracker (CAT) ratings. A longish thread. Major outcome -- damning to all emerging economies while greenwashing US and Germany. @UlkaKelkar @aygoswami @spacem0nk3y @JMauskar @3rdworldnetwork @bforboseman @n_thanki @TheBTI
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Step 1: First major change -- CAT adds targets to policies as the basis of assessment. Immediate greenwash available to those who declare "net zero", or new NDCs. But this is not enough to save them. More required.
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Step 2: Both targets and policies now assessed not only against "fair" share, but ALSO against "low cost" pathways. So distributing the mitigation burden by where it is "cheaper", also counts. Major leg up for the Annex-I, as "cheaper" means let non-Annex-I do it!
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Step 2 clarification: The "low cost" pathways are based on SSP scenarios for 1.5 warming, with -ve emissions and the like liberally used. EQUITY NOT A CRITERIA. This is a bunch of mainly European authors declaring, suo moto, how the world should be!!
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Step 3: Country targets extracted from low cost pathways by SSP version of downscaling. This is not like climate downscaling that is rigorous. Labelled "modelled domestic pathways" (MDP), favours the rich. All SSPs are contract & converge for burden sharing in disguise.
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Step 4: The magicians' ploy. A little smoke and a bit of distracting talk helps to distract from the main sleight of hand move. So introduce climate finance as a criteria in targets. Mildly useful, but no need to break into applause just yet.
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Step 5: Change the "fair share" methodology. Fair share was even earlier badly defined. Given by the range (weighted?) found in the literature, over the 5 categories of papers used in the AR5 assessment of fair share. Literature now dominated by a new set of papers.
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Step 5 (contd): These are dominated by 1.5 deg target papers, with a big influx from developed countries' authors. So the fair share assessment changes quite a bit. Major loser is India.
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Step 6: Even with all this, required greenwashing does not happen. So here is the way all this is put together to produce a rating!!
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Step 7: Gets really interesting now. Even in the policies part, the Annex-I get a major leg up. Only the rating according to the better performance under the two criteria is taken on board. They will lose on Fair Share, but then they will do much better under the other one.
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Step 8: While developing countries can escape being downgraded by MDP criterion in "policies", they cant do so in "targets". MDP, optional vis-a-vis fair share in "policies", is now mandatorily included in "targets", where average with the fair share rating is taken.
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Step 8 clarification: Still opaque how even this is applied. Under "targets", India's emissions intensity target from NDC is utilised in the fair share rating, while the 40% power capacity from non-fossil-fuels (conditional on international support) is used in MDP criterion
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(Contd.): Now we find out "fair share" means unconditional NDC. Meeting the MDP criteria is the only thing that support is allowed for -- not how much it costs to go below BAU, or what are development deficits, etc. So CAT writes its own criteria of finance for global South!
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(Contd): CAT even helpfully tells India what it should do! Add 450 GW RE in the NDC under conditional support, so that it comes under the MDP criteria, and there..your ratings will improve!!
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Step 9: Now for the final greenwash. Annex-I countries helpfully get a choice between climate finance and "fair share", namely unconditional effort. That helps US which does worse on finance than on its new NDC. The MDP criteria is always easier on them, so they do well.
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Step 10: Overall procedure does its job. See the US ratings headline --- climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa/

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Step 10 (contd.): vs. the India ratings headline. Now do you really think this is the correct state of affairs? That after 5 Trump years, staying out of KP, promises turn the US into the angels overnight???
climateactiontracker.org/countries/india
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CAT itself is hugely embarrassed by its own effort. Have elsewhere said India's still is 2 deg compliant in "policies & actions", while US is critically insufficient in finance. But this is all in aid of COP26. Eventually who pays the piper calls the tune!!
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