Thread by @jonworth

As well as the outright stupidity of the UK Government's Brexit positions just now (something we've grown used to over 5 years), there's a further headache

The *INEVITABILITY* of what comes next

A 🧵 on whether we can break the Brexit cycle...

David Frost is giving a speech Tuesday 12 October where he will outline the UK's problems with the Northern Ireland Protocol

We know what those problems are because Frost floated them for the Sunday papers

And Frost has sounded like a broken record over the summer since the UK Government's "Command Paper" - Tuesday is likely to be more of the same

https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1446981187663192066

We also know roughly how the EU side will react - trying to be as accommodating as possible on the details, but sticking to the framework of the deal struck only 10 months ago

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1446964235972616194

There's not then much question of what comes next: the UK Government looks to be heading inexorably towards triggering Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol

The question is only WHEN, not IF

Frost's speech Tuesday might fire the starting pistol for Article 16, or the UK might hold off until after COP26 in Glasgow (that ends 12 November), but the essence is clear: there seems no way Frost and Johnson can paddle backwards out of the creek they find themselves in

This excellent thread by @NashSGC explains what is likely to happen next - that even triggering Article 16 leads to... a further round of talks...

https://twitter.com/NashSGC/status/1447489333678809089

But these are talks and talks, and proposals and proposals, but neither side has any real hope that anything they do will break the cycle

For UK Government anything short of major re-working of the Protocol is not enough. For the EU doing that is a bridge too far

Could anything give?

OPTION 1
UK Govt keeps turning the rhetoric up more and more (as it has since summer) and does not actually *do* anything - but that's no solution. You can't keep dumping oil on flames forever before you get a major inferno...

Likely, but it's no solution

OPTION 2
(a sort of extended Option 1) Everything rumbles on and on until May 2022 and the Northern Ireland Assembly elections, and Sinn Féin emerges as largest party and DUP takes a massive hit

Not likely - DUP is pressuring Frost and Johnson to act sooner

OPTION 3
Everything escalates so badly and so quickly with UK's multitude of other crises (fuel, gas, supply chains etc.) that someone in government goes "hang on a sec, do we need a trade war with the EU too?"

Not likely - as a conflict with the EU distracts from other issues

OPTION 4
Johnson realises that a conflict with the EU could damage his government still further, and realises someone less confrontational than Frost could unlock things

Not at all likely - would require political sense and skill from Johnson

And... well... that's about it

None of it either sensible or adequate

And then there's OPTION 5
UK triggers Article 16. The month of talks this starts result in no agreement, and so EU hits UK with targeted tariffs - and it leaves everyone worse off, except perhaps Frost and Johnson who can better position the EU as bogeyman

Pretty likely (I fear)

Anything better than any of these options is predicated on UK Government accepting the Protocol (not happening), Johnson behaving like a decent politician or human (not happening), or economics winning over politics (likewise, no)

There's no way to break the cycle

Please do tell me I am wrong here

I would be happy to be wrong here!

But this is why trade people, lawyers, people who want the UK to be a reasonably functioning state... see so little grounds for optimism just now!

/ends

P.S. I see the Telegraph thinks a deal is possible telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/… 🤷‍♂️ Deal on sausages now, save the problem of the ECJ for later. Maybe this pushes the real conflict until after the COP in Glasgow.