WHERE WE STAND: the SEC has a few days left to delay on bitcoin futures ETFs. If hear nothing, the first ETF filed (ProShares) will be free to launch on 10/18 as the 75 days req will have passed. That said, this is an unusual situation but no news is prob good news at this point.
THAT SAID, the crypto crowd may be overestimating the demand for these ETFs. It's a big step no doubt but we see only $4b in first 12mo (and some think that's too high!) but that's just 5% of crypto fund aum, 3% of bitcoin futures, and 1% of bitcoin mkt cap and 1% of all ETF flow
Here's a look at the assets of the bitcoin futures ETF in Canada vs its physically backed peers. No bites at all. Yes, the US will be dif bc futures ETFs will be only game in town for a while, that's why we saying $4b. If physically launched at same time we'd drop that to <$100m.
A question I get a lot: where can I go to hear first whether they deny or approve these? My answer is ANYWHERE as this will spread like wild fire. But I'd recommend the Terminal, @Business (of course) and @CoinDesk who tends to be on ball w breaking news.
Another question we get is: will they approve many at once? IMO no, I think they put them on at time a la airplanes on a runway bc they prob nervous about overhwelming underlying market (even tho prob not a big deal). That said, it would be more fair to put them out all at once.
Finally, if anyone has anything that counters any of this (or confirms it) or any non-obvious things to say on this topic, my DMs are open and I totally honor off record or on background information.
Quick note on this chart: I charted the inverse futures one but it has same microscopic assets as the long-only one which is $HBIT so my point is entirely in tact.
Quick correction: the futures % is off, it would be much more, I had wrong denominator for open interest.

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More from @EricBalchunas

13 Oct
JUST IN: ARK just filed for a bitcoin futures ETF via 21Shares and via whiteAlpha Architect white label (huge win for them). Already has ticker too: $ARKA (yet another good sign SEC gonna approve) Image
Big win for white label issuer @alphaarchitect @RyanPKirlin @jvogs02 @patrickcleary01 to work with @CathieDWood and @OpheliaBSnyder. Strong indie partnership. I'm sure $ARKA will be an instant force to be reckoned with when it launches.
Just to be clear, yes, ARK already filed with 21Shares to do a physical bitcoin ETF under 33 Act. This is an additional filing for a futures ETF under the Genz-friendly 40 Act.
Read 4 tweets
29 Sep
New filing for "The Gen Z ETF"
Holds Gen Z stocks that are used by Gen Z or reflect their progressive values. "Gen Z is essentially a digital generation, who does not know a world before the Internet" Here's the Gen Z Scoring System:
Honestly this will prob do ok. Stocks young ppl are into tend to be tech advanced. Also the Millennials ETFs $MILN and $GENY have a combined $350m, solid. Also H/t to @SarahPonczek who pitched this in our ETF shark tank 3yrs ago.
Read 4 tweets
29 Sep
The Bitcoin futures mutual fund that launched 2mo ago only has $15m in aum, VERY LOW considering the pent up demand. Here's a look at first 43 days of $BTCFX vs $BTCC (physical) in Canada (whose mkt is 27x smaller btw). Not sure if MF or futures is problem but poss bad sign..
The lack of interest is also despite the fact that it tracks spot bitcoin really well (which is arguably welcome news for futures etfs). I added $GBTC so you could see the dif. You'd think this would get more looks. I'm a little stunned frankly.
The lack of interest may actually calm SEC a bit (who prob worry about too much rush into ETFs). Thus, we sticking with our 75% chance that a bitcoin futures ETF is approved and launches in Oct/Nov with ProShares as huge favorite to be out first.
Read 4 tweets
20 Sep
$SPY volume (the People's Fear Gauge) was over $70b today, well into the freak out zone. The last time $SPY traded this much was March 2020. Altho it's had a couple spasms since and nothing much came of it. The key is whether this volume is sustained vs one-off. Tomorrow imp.
$UVXY traded a ton too, most this year.. about $3b, which is 2x what it has in aum, ha.
Notable and somewhat unusual is that stocks didn't trade all that much eg $TSLA was most traded stock on day but w a mild $17b which is meh historically speaking. This tells me big traders/inst used $SPY to tweak a bit but were not 'bailing out on mkt' at all.
Read 4 tweets
15 Sep
Bitcoin Futures ETFs are about halfway through the 75 days it takes for SEC approval of a 40 Act fund. Here's earliest date they could (and are likely to be IMO) approved based on when they filed:
Note: the ProFunds Bitcoin Strategy Mutual Fund was launched 77 Days after filing. So these dates are not exact exact, but prob close IMO (altho I've been wrong handicapping this race before so.. )
To everyone crapping on this, I don't blame you. The SEC is literally Lucy with the football and we're all Charlie Brown. But.. they've already approved a 40 Act bitcoin futures MF and Genz said he 'looks fwd to 40 act bitcoin etf futures filings' That's decent evidence imo.
Read 4 tweets
23 Aug
There have been many 'Xerox' moments in the ETF industry but the GOAT has to be Nuveen filing for what would have been first bond ETF in 2000 and then balking bc worried about cannibalization/revenue. @tpsarofagis uses them in note today as case study for aspiring entrants.
Not to mention how balking chased away Bruce Bond and Hooten/Fulten who set up PowerShares and Claymore. Not a stretch to say had CEO had better vision, Nuveen could have been bigger than BlackRock. Good case study for all the legacy asset mgrs entering biz.
Also, Year 2000 (when Nuveen filed) has proven to be the best class of ETFs in terms of assets by far. That was when many stud products were launched (curr 2000 launches make up 14% of all aum). The assets per launch class have dwindled since. Great chart from @tpsarofagis
Read 6 tweets

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