More from @Molson_Hart

Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

13 Oct

Can a country become sustainably rich without a sizable manufacturing base?

Ways to get rich:

- resource extraction
- tourism
- financial services
- service outsourcing
- software
- manufacturing
- something else I’m missing?

1/n

There’s something special about manufacturing. It taps into all of your human capital. Compare it to tourism. Your people oriented people work the hotels and restaurants. You get a small construction industry, a bit of marketing but that’s it.

2/n

Whereas for manufacturing, your people oriented people do sales, some people can work the plants, you can have designers, managers (yes you get these with tourism too), software, and construction. All your human capital gets tapped.

3/n

Read 6 tweets

Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

8 Oct

The worst experience I've ever had on Twitter!

A lot of people have been asking me what happened, so here's a 🧵of how fucked up Twitter can get, not only for you, but for your family.

https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1444459379672158211

It all started at dinner when I decided to calculate the living expenses of someone I know.

I was amazed at how high they were considering how poorly he lived for what he was spending.

I thought to myself, "hmm this is interesting, I'll tweet it."

https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1444459379672158211

It went viral.

Most people didn't understand my point (which was not well articulated) and thought that I was suggesting that spending over $1mm/year was not extravagant.

And the guillotines came out.

Read 20 tweets

Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

7 Oct

Economies and diseconomies of scale in management.

0 Employees.

With no one to manage, there is no one with whom to communicate. You will never be more efficient.

1/n

1 employee.

You now must communicate what, how, and why to the employee you manage. Efficiency falls from this communication. However, accountability is high because everything that happens in the department can be attributed to the one person.

2/n

2 employees.

Huge dropoff in efficiency, because, not only do the two employees need to communicate between themselves and you, but you need to know who is responsible for what. You must observe closely to reward fairly or no one will work hard.

3/n

Read 7 tweets

Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

3 Oct

I tweeted about how much it costs to live in Manhattan and in between threats to guillotine me (someone even suggested a wood-chipper!) someone posted an interesting graph from the Fed showing wealth by percentile group.

It's pretty wild.

1/n

federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/da…

1989's Top 1% Share of Wealth: 23.6%
2021: 32.3%

1989's 90-99% Percentile Share of Wealth: 37.3%
2021: 37.7%

1989's 50-90% Percentile Share of Wealth: 35.5%
2021: 27.8%

1989's 0-50% Percentile Share of Wealth: 3.7%
2021: 2.3%

2/n

The most commonly cited solution to this problem is to "tax the rich" but since 1989 we've done that while the wealth share got worse.

Top tax rate went from 28% to 37%.

Not an apples to apples comparison because of inflation but rates also went down for low earners.

3/n

Read 7 tweets

Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

2 Oct

The US consumer good economy in a nutshell right now:

Corporate handouts: EIDL, PPP, ERC, and 2020’s earnings money

VS

Supply chain: rapidly accelerating costs across the board

VS

Consumer savings: UI, stimulus money, child tax credits, and rising wages

What happens?

1/2

Throw a little bullwhip inventory effect, price reflexivity, fomo, human psychology, and tons of debt in there.

And I don’t see how this doesn’t lead to a subprime like economic crisis.

2/2

Bonus: What’s crazy about this is that you also have shortages and government issues like infrastructure and the debt ceiling (did this get fixed?) that I didn’t even mention.

I just don’t see how we get through this without a blow up 🤷‍♂️

Read 4 tweets