Thread by @JaneLindholm

🚨🚨Heads up! Today’s #vtpoli #covid19vt press briefing begins early, at 11:30am. You can listen on @vprnet and I’ll be tweeting! Consider this an extra early start to the thread.🚨🚨

After it’s over, stick around for a broadcast of @ButWhyKids. Our latest episode of this international show for kids is set right here in Vermont, at Champlain Orchards. That will air when the post-presser analysis ends.

As we await the start of the briefing, take a look at this, from the state’s new modeling report. Cases are up significantly in Vermont. You can find the full report here: dfr.vermont.gov/about-us/covid…

DFR Commissioner and chief modeler Mike Pieciak begins the press briefing. (The governor is on a call and will be joining soon.)

Pieciak says trends looked favorable last week, and have started to drop in New England and the US at large. But here in Vermont, cases are going up. We are in the middle of the pack in terms of case rates around the country. Cases are up here in both vaccinated and unvaccinated.

Cases in the Northeast Kingdom are especially high. Pediatric cases are outpacing other age groups.

Hospitalization rates are down.

In higher ed, cases remain very low. Outbreaks in long term care facilities also noted here, as is Vermont’s death rate compared to the rest of the US.

Here is more national and New England context. Throughout the rest of New England, cases are going down, even in places like Maine, which had been experiencing significantly higher cases. Vermont is an outlier.

Finally, here are the vaccination statistics.

Education Secretary Dan French now. Says his agency has been working to support schools implement the test-to-stay program, which allows exposed students to take a rapid test daily and stay in school if they test negative.

French says families should be patient as they await rollout of this program in individual schools, since the ability to rapidly staff up and find (human) resources for this program varies from school to school.

Schools also need to get CLIA waivers to implement the test-to-stay program. cdc.gov/labquality/wai…

About half of the public school districts and a few independent schools have started working to get their CLIA waivers from the federal government.

French says he continues to hear from school districts that finding staffing to do these programs is a significant challenge. (Uh, yeah, school district staff that I hear from are basically shouting this!)

French reiterates the message of patience and says it will take time to get these programs all implemented.

Human Services Secretary Mike Smith with an update now. He's updating on some of the upcoming federal advisory panels that will be looking at vaccination for kids, booster shots that mix and match vaccine types, and other issues.

On testing, Smith says the state continues to have a "very robust testing regimine", with 47,000 tests processed in the last week.

Health Commissioner Mark Levine now. He reiterates the message that getting vaccinated is essential. Says 70-75% of recent cases are in unvaccinated individuals, including pediatric cases.

https://twitter.com/AlisoninV/status/1447954325087703044

Levine highlights the CDC's recent advisory strongly urging those who are pregnant to get the vaccine, either before or during pregnancy. He says the risks of COVID-19 to adult and baby are both higher than the risks of the vaccine.

On monoclonal antibody treatment: Levine says people who are sick with mild to moderate disease, not hospitalized, and have a significant medical condition or are age 65+, SHOULD ask their healthcare provider if monoclonal antibody treatment would be helpful for them.

Free pulse oximeters are still available from the health department for people to monitor their symptoms and to possibly be able to identify when they might want to get in touch with their primary care provider to talk about treatment options.

Levine says news about a possible COVID-19 pill from Merck are promising. Here's an article on that: apnews.com/article/merck-…

And Levine urges people to get their flu shots. Says it's fine to get the flu shot and a COVID shot or booster at the same time.

Governor Scott has arrived. He's headed to Washington DC this afternoon with Adjutant General Greg Knight, and he'll be saying more about that later.

He just got off his call with the White House. Says the federal govt. is already preparing for distribution of the vaccine when it is approved for those age 5-11. As is Vermont.

Scott says the CDC is worried that this year's flu season will be particularly bad after a mild season last year, and urges people to get their flu shots.

Says there's no word on opening the northern border to Canadian visitors.

Scott thanks everyone involved in ensuring children can learn in schools this year. Says teachers, staff and administrators have been working very very hard to make this school year work.

But says some parents are not cooperating, and it sounds like they're being rude (or worse) to schools trying to implement COVID protocols or reach out for contact tracing etc.

Scott touts the test-to-stay program as a way to streamline things for schools. Says it has worked in Massachusetts. But Dartmouth researcher Anne Sosin points out, that's something MA started implementing well before school started.

https://twitter.com/asosin/status/1447956084933672960

On why the ongoing Delta surge seems to have surprised officials here, Scott says that in countries that had Delta prior to the US it looked like cases peaked and started down after 8-9 weeks. But in the US it appears to be more like 13-14 weeks, and we aren't quite there yet.

Asked for more details about parents not cooperating with school officials Scott says (in part) there's some confusion, and that's leading to parental frustration.

French says sometimes students who have to stay home are not complying with quarantine rules. And it's hard/exhausting for school officials to try to enforce rules.

French also said that although there are instances of cases being transmitted within the school setting, most school-related cases are from students being exposed in the community, not from in-school transmission.

Scott says he watched the Red Sox (win!!) last night and noticed that there were not a lot of masks on fans. Says it was outside, but pretty close quarters. So he's going to watch and see if there is a case increase that could be attributed to Fenway Park.

Says people here should still think about prevention methods, like wearing masks, only attending small to medium-sized gatherings, wearing masks when they can't keep distance, staying outside.

On whether the 14 deaths so far this month could have been prevented, Scott says most of the deaths were in patients who also had significant age or health factors. Which doesn't make them less tragic, but likely contributed.

Asked if there are any mitigation measures he could add that could prevent these deaths, Scott says "I'm not sure what we could do...I know our health care professionals are doing the best they can...but it does seem to affect the elderly, the more compromised."

Scott says, anecdotally, the vaccine has been as effective in preventing deaths from the Delta variant as they had hoped.

Levine says a total lockdown would probably prevent more cases and deaths. But a total lockdown is just not tolerable at this point. And people have choices now about how to mitigate risk: vaccination, masking, not being in locations that are risky.

Levine adds that though it's sad, some deaths are probably not avoidable, especially in those who are very old or have significantly compromised immune systems.

Levine says because the northeast has such high vaccination levels, the Delta curve looks a little different here than in other parts of the country. More flattened here, and a longer slower downturn than in places where there was a sharp rise and sharp fall.

On racial slurs and taunting during school sports, Scott is asked what teams should do. He says kids should not be subjected to this kind of harassment and it should not be tolerated. It should be "stopped in its tracks."

Says officials need to work on some policies to help schools address this, and they're working on that.

Levine says he would not recommend you get a shingles vaccine at the same time you get your COVID or flu vaccine. Not from any known contraindications, but because the side effects of the shingles vaccine can make people feel lousy and he wouldn't double up.

Thanks to @AshMooreVT for questioning this tweet of mine.

https://twitter.com/JaneLindholm/status/1447961773026562052

It's a typo. The governor said the vaccine HASN'T been as effective as hoped in preventing deaths.

Asked why the health department doesn't strengthen its mask guidance to say people SHOULD wear masks indoors, Scott says that IS his recommendation. He says people who are indoors for gatherings should wear masks.

But he adds that the state is not seeing cases transmitted in circumstances where someone goes into a convenience store or gas station or hardware store briefly. Says cases are more likely at gatherings where people are spending longer time in close quarters, baby showers etc.

Asked point blank by @AnneWallAllen if a mask mandate would prevent cases, Levine says that's a tough question. Says those who are likely to abide by it are more likely to be vaccinated already. And those who are more at risk of contraction/transmission would be less likely.

Levine says mask mandates prior to Delta were more effective. But there's not as much data on masks and Delta now. (ME: I found this answer a little confusing.)

Scott says people who are unvaccinated SHOULD wear a mask when they're indoors. However, "I don't think us mandating that would get one single person to wear a mask who doesn't want to wear a mask." Scott says he doesn't think a mandate would get compliance.

Border question. Scott says he and other border state governors bring up the Canadian border issue every time they have a call with the White House. And they seem to be getting stonewalled. "We're as frustrated as anyone else at this point."

Gov. Scott says he doesn't want to miss his flight so he's going to need to leave now. Press briefing continues without him.

Secretary Smith says there has been a low supply of J&J shots for the past few months in Vermont. Pfizer and Moderna shots are much more abundant.

Question about wait times at UVM Medical Center and health network. Here's the plan, just released this morning: d2ubrtwy6ww54e.cloudfront.net/www.uvmhealth.…

The state is also currently investigating wait times: sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/arc…

Smith says he hopes to have more info/plans available by the time the legislature returns in January.

Pete Hirschfeld asks about pediatric hospitalizations, noting the state said a month ago that there had only been 5 pediatric hospitalizations since the start of Delta, and he asks for an update.

Levine says he doesn't have an updated number but he does know there are 5 kids in Vermont hospitals with COVID right now.

On why Levine is now bullish about monoclonal antibodies, Levine says data and evidence show that these treatments are highly effective and easier to implement now than earlier in the pandemic. State could treat 15 patients a day w/ these treatments and could staff up to 30.

Hirschfeld asks what the soonest is that we could start seeing schools implement test-to-stay, and when will ALL schools have it. French says probably 2 weeks to get started, more over the course of the next month. He doesn't specify when ALL will likely have implemented it.

Levine says side effects of the COVID booster are pretty much the same as the potential for side effects from the first shots.

Per capita: 0-9 year olds "stand head and shoulder above other age groups", Pieciak says. 30-39 yos are the next highest age group, followed by those age 10-19. Those with the highest vaccination rates are showing the lowest infection rate. (I'll post that slide again.)

Here are the case and hospitalization rates by age groups.

On winter sports guidance: French says the state should produce recommendations this month. He's meeting with ANR Secretary Julie Moore on that today.

Secretary Moore says the guidance right now is that teams should take cues by what's going on with cases in schools, and masks should be worn for indoor sports for at least as long as they're also being worn in schools.

Levine clarifies that of the 5 kids who are currently hospitalized for COVID, 3 are at the Brattleboro Retreat. So they weren't necessarily sent to the hospital BECAUSE of COVID symptoms, but they're counted because they are in an in-patient hospital setting and have COVID.

That's it for me today. Hope you're all hanging in there. I'm feeling pretty deflated and anxious these days--especially as a parent of two small kids. So, take care of yourself if you can. Reach out for help if you need it.

Here's what I'm doing today for self-care: I took a morning meeting in the woods (where I could still get cell reception!), and I made toaster s'mores just before this press briefing!! Feels special, and doesn't require a campfire!

Oh, and another possible tip: tune in to @vprnet right now to listen to @ButWhyKids. Kids asking good questions and other kids getting to be the experts should help lift your spirits!!

Okay, that's it. See you next week!