Thread by @lxeagle17

Educational polarization means it is genuinely way more plausible for Democrats to win 53% of the two way vote than people think — it’s just that one of the key ways to do it lies in getting minority turnout to stay at presidential levels in off-years.

I’ll put it this way: a month ago, I wrote a piece about educational turnout differential and its electoral implications. But the upshot is that if Democrats can keep their minority turnout numbers high, then the midterm electorate is a point or two *more* favorable to them.

It means that if Black voters were 11% of the electorate in 2020, you’d want them to be around 11-12% of the electorate in 2022 — we’re speaking in terms of electorate share here. Essentially, the drop among minorities cannot be as stark as the drop among white noncollege voters.

if you want to read more of the math behind it, I wrote a piece on it a few weeks ago.

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1438532070326751232