Thread by @lxeagle17

On Cook's #VAGov ratings change:

What has to happen in Virginia is a combination of 3 things: McAuliffe significantly lags Biden margins with educated whites, gets low Black turnout, and faces high rural GOP turnout.

Could that happen? Definitely. Is that likely? IMO no.

Depths of the realignment in Virginia can't really be overstated here. Wexton won by 13 as Biden won by 19, and in this era of polarization, I veer towards thinking Wexton's numbers are near the floor for McAuliffe in that district, especially given his quasi-incumbency.

At the end of the day, I still think it's too big of a lift for Youngkin to successfully manage this. I'm not stupid enough to say it can't happen, because it absolutely can, but I'd be a bit wary of saying that it's a tossup (our model actually still has it as likely Democratic)

I bring up Wexton's numbers in #VA10 precisely because it encapsulates the realignment pretty well. Barbara Comstock won it by 16 in 2014 and 6 in 2016, even as Clinton won it by 10. Trouble is, it's sprinted leftwards since then. And that shows how deep the realignment is.

So, to sum the thread up: McAuliffe isn't even 50/50 to lose in my mind because all 3 things have to converge for him to lose the race, and if any one of those factors breaks down, he probably wins. I don't think that's consistent with a tossup rating. It's at least Lean D.