According to our survey of 1204 Albertans (online, Sept 21 to Oct 6), 43% intend to vote "yes" in the equalization referendum. 26% plan to vote "no" and 28% are unsure.
Older Albertans are more likely to vote "yes," as are people in rural areas.
There are clear partisan and ideological divides on the referendum question. People on the right and those that support conservative parties are far more likely to vote "yes" than those on the left.
Predictably, people who feel a closer attachment to Alberta and a looser attachment to Canada are more likely to vote "yes".
We also asked 600 of our respondents to answer an 8-question quiz about equalization. Fewer than half (44.5%) passed the test, revealing a very low level of basic knowledge about the subject of this month's referendum.
Respondents were most likely to know the purpose of equalization, and the fact that the Alberta government does *not* send funds directly to poorer provinces.
No group of Albertans scored high on the quiz. "No" voters did perform better than "yes" voters, however.
Earlier this year, we teamed up with @Pollara to ask Albertans how they felt about the Freedom Convoy.
TL;DR: 61% of Albertans oppose its objectives & 67% of Albertans oppose its methods. pollara.com/majority-of-al…
Our survey results show a clear divide along partisan lines. Survey respondents who support the UCP are more likely to support the objectives of the convoy (56%), while only 14% of New Democrat respondents support the convoy.
Older Albertans (65+) were more likely to oppose the objectives of the convoy (70%) compared to those under 65 (59%).
Most Albertans want and expect Jason Kenney to lose his leadership review, according to our latest Viewpoint Alberta survey. @DrJaredWesley discusses the implications for Alberta politics in the months ahead. commongroundpolitics.ca/kenneyreview
Kenney’s popularity has recovered somewhat over the past six months, however, it remains well below that of his primary opponent, NDP Leader Rachel Notley.
Nearly two-thirds of Albertans (63%) hold a negative view of Kenney on this feeling thermometer measure, and only one-in-four hold a positive view.
How do Albertans feel about the prime minister, premier, and other party leaders? @DrJaredWesley has our latest Viewpoint Research Brief. #ableg 🧵⤵️ 🔗drive.google.com/file/d/11ZX8sp… (n=802, online, Mar 1-8, 2021)
We asked Albertans to use 1 word to describe each major party leader. They used negative words to describe Kenney & Trudeau, positive words to describe Notley, and words to indicate unfamiliarity to describe O’Toole.
Albertans have negative impressions of Trudeau and Kenney. Conversely, Albertans view Singh and Notley more positively than negatively. 1 in 5 Albertans indicated they do not know O'Toole, and his negatives outweigh his positives.
4 in 10 Albertans and 1 in 3 Saskatchewanians reported worsening employment situations since last year. Likewise, Albertans and Saskatchewanians reported income declines in March 2021.
In SK & AB, racial minorities were more likely than white people to report worsening employment situations. Generation Z reported the highest employment effects––nearly half of SK Generation Z respondents and 6 in 10 AB Generation Z respondents reported worsening employment.
Our measures of party support align well with those from Canada’s leading polling firms, both of whom were in the field at the same time as us (first week of March 2021).
UCP support continues its steady but slowing decline. A key change since August 2020: NDP support has climbed nearly 12 points.