Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #abpoli

Most recents (24)

I don't want us to be the benchmark in Canada anymore for other provinces to say, "At least we're not Alberta." I don't want to wake up every morning with a knot in my gut worrying about what unhinged decisions the UCP will make that day as they chase /1
their fever dream of being a US red state. I don't want to cringe every time Danielle Smith opens her mouth because she is either uninformed, misinformed, or saying things that show a lack of judgment and critical thinking skills. /2
I am sick of extremism in Alberta. I am tired of extremists feeling at home here. I am tired of people like Theo Fleury & Jamie Sale thinking AB is the perfect place to spew lies from. There is such a long list of extremist bad actors that flourish in AB./3
Read 24 tweets
I predicted an NDP win two weeks ago, and I'm standing by that prediction. These are my five reasons why NDP will form government tomorrow, and why the pollsters STILL have it wrong. #ableg #abpoli #abelxn23
1. Moderate conservatives in Calgary will choose Notley over Smith. These voters want low taxes, well-run services, and they don't tolerate nonsense. Rachel offers this, Smith doesn't. This thread explains why they will deliver Calgary for the NDP:
2. Vote inefficiency means that if UCP only wins the popular vote by 2%, as pollsters predict, NDP wins the election. If UCP only gets 50% provincially, they're down to 45% or less in Calgary, and lose all but the deep south. They need at least a draw in Calgary to win.
Read 11 tweets
Gather around friends, it's time for my official Alberta Election 2023 prediction. Based on very little knowledge and a solid record of calling things wrong, here's what's going to happen tomorrow and the future🧵

#ableg #abpoli
The UCP and NDP will each have 43 MLAs elected, with the 87th seat going to Jennifer Johnson, who will represent Lacombe-Ponoka.

That's right, the lady that called children "feces" in the cookie dough of our schools will have her vote up for sale. And it won't come cheap.
Take Back Alberta (TBA) will suddenly, by proxy, find themselves holding the balance of power and will waste no time setting in motion all their insane demands. Secession! Annexing land to get pipelines to water! Freedom! The expelling of all queer folks from Alberta!
Read 14 tweets
Final thoughts on our @abacusdataca polling for #ableg #abvotes #abpoli:

The NDP had to do something very difficult in this election. It had to convince a lot of Albertans to vote NDP for the first time in their lives. They had to get them to go against their identities and……
Coming into this election, Danielle Smith was very much the focus of people’s attention. Her favourables were lower than Rachel Notley’s. Many past UCP voters were repelled by her, thought she was worse than Jason Kenney as Premier, and felt she was a risky prospect. It looked……
In the end, the structural advantages of a united conservative electorate t in Alberta meant the UCP was always the favourites to win the election. The NDP needed to center the election around healthcare, convince voters they had economic credibility, and persuade individuals…… Image
Read 9 tweets
2023 #abvotes Prediction:

Some explanations first. There are 22 ridings “in-play”. 15 in Calgary and 7 elsewhere.

For safe ridings, UCP leads 37-28.
#ableg #abpoli Image
With decent confidence, I feel NDP will take Slave Lake, Banff-Kan, Sherwood Park, Strathcona-SP, Lethbridge East, Morinville-StA and 6 more in Calgary. UCP takes FtSk-Veg and 3 more in Calgary.

This brings us down to a virtual tie and 6 tight Cgy seats up for grabs.
#abvote Image
To call the next 6, I assumed the UCP are up by 3 in Calgary. I looked at 2019 results plus Abacus data on vote retention from 2019.

Here’s the thing. All of these ridings had strong Alberta Party support in 2019. With ABP vote collapsing, I see all 6 being close, but going NDP
Read 5 tweets
And now the 🧵 of 🧵s (Mega 🧵Parts 1-5). If you can make it through all of these threads and still vote UCP, I don't know what to say. Go out and vote like the future of Alberta is dependent on it because indeed it is. #Ableg #Abpoli #VoteNDP #FiretheUCP
Read 6 tweets
Mega 🧵Part 5: This thread serves as a reminder of some of the opportunistic ideologues that aligned themselves under the UCP banner & their disastrous, often embarrassing actions over the past 4 years. Many of these dud MLAs are seeking re-election. #Ableg #Abpoli 1/x Image
This is Devin “Shields Up” Dreeshen. This spoiled privileged brat treated the Legislature like a frat party ultimately resigning his cabinet post after allegations of harassment & drunken binges. Reinstated by Smith as she though he was ministerial material. #Ableg #Abpoli ImageImage
BTW did he get away with travelling during Covid restrictions? Did the Kenney and the UCP cover for him while others took the fall? Doesn't look like St. Barts to me at all. #Ableg #Abpoli Image
Read 16 tweets
Thanks to everyone sharing my threads about the outrageously inaccurate #abelxn23 polling. I hope post-election there will be a serious discussion about polling practices, influence, and ethics. This thread discusses the legal requirements for polls. #ableg #abpoli Image
The Alberta Elections Act sets out a general requirement for election surveys in section 135. Pollsters must register with the Chief Electoral Officer, but there's no certification. Anyone can call themselves a pollster regardless of their affiliation or qualifications. ImageImage
There are some general disclosure requirements, including who commissioned the poll and some basic details, but methodology is up to the pollster. There is no set standard. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
This is very encouraging. Notley is going to Calgary South-East and Calgary-Lougheed, districts UCP won by 61/19 and 66/25 in 2019. Leaders don't spend the final days of races in districts they don't think they can win. If South Calgary is in play, UCP is toast. #ableg #abelxn23
This thread explains why the pollsters have completely underestimated the magnitude of the shift that has occurred in #yyc. #ableg #abpoli #abelxn23
Read 5 tweets
This one deserves a caption contest. Go! #ableg #abpoli Image
“In due course, Grasshopper”.
“So if someone disagrees with you, go stand in their driveway and yell at them”
Read 4 tweets
We are down to the last few days of the election and I will end my series on Family Medicine with these graphics from @Albertadoctors

How bad is the state of Family Medicine in #Alberta compared to the early days of the UCP?

Well, read on:

The number of Family Doctors accepting new patients overall in AB has dropped from 887 to 209, with the South Zone taking a near obliteration.

(I actually think this is an overestimation for all zones because many of these are walk in or niche docs only)

2/x Image
Compared to the populations they serve, this is a dramatic loss and explains why you can't find a Family Doctor if you lose yours...


3/x Image
Read 10 tweets
You have to wonder…

Given the sad trombone that was Artur’s press conference/sermon today, does Smith appreciate how much of a nothing burger the “optics” of Artur’s condemnation in January would have been if she had never made the call?

#abpoli #ableg #cdnpoli

/1… Image
On a separate but somewhat related note, is anyone else struck by how sad it is for a person to be worried about the approval of someone like Artur?

For most, his condemnation would be a Medal of Honor…

But here’s the scary part…

Alberta had a premier who is so desperate for approval that she broke the law to try and avoid Artur’s condemnation and was willing to interfere in the administration of justice.

That’s how vulnerable the province of Alberta is and was.

Read 4 tweets
Can we have an honest conversation about what socialism / communism is after this election?

I am getting really tired of people calling the NDP communist or socialist when clearly their policies are actually moderate and fiscally intelligent.

But yeah...CoMmUnIsM. #abpoli
I should mention, if you're against socialism, you're against:

1. Police departments
2. Fire departments
3. Public libraries
4. The military
5. Public water supplies
6. Pensions

The list goes on.

Anything that serves public utility is by definition "socialist".
Yes, socialism also wants to create economic equality, or at least lessen economic disparity.

Nowhere in anything I have ever read about the NDP says they want total economic equality.

So do they embrace elements of leftist ideals? I guess.

Are they hard socialists? No.
Read 4 tweets

We need to talk about Bonnie maybe.

Bonnie is allegedly the "volunteer" who posted this fun little statement about Jennifer "Trans kids are like feces" Johnson last night.


#abpoli #ableg #cdnpoli Image
Now that post was very quickly deleted and this was posted after.

Which is, in all honesty, a pretty bold choice.

/2 Image
And then this morning, that post was deleted and this was posted in it's place...

/3 Image
Read 7 tweets
Smith today resorting back to her "Look I was a radio host" defence of the outrageous things she said.

Here's the problem.

The vast majority of things she said that have gotten her into hot water took place after she left radio and during her leadership race...


Smith's comment about how "everything up to stage 4 cancer is under your control?

During her campaign for UCP Leadership. July 21, 2022.

(You can tell because of the "Danielle Smith For Premier" logo beside her head also)

Smith's comments about the unvaccinated being the most discriminated against group she's seen in her lifetime?

After she took office as premier.

October 11, 2022

Read 9 tweets
Thinking of voting UCP “because of the economy”? Think again! New study shows UCP’s “trickle down” policies have hurt, not helped the Alberta economy. Wage growth, economic growth, investment all dismal under UCP. #abvotes #FireTheUCP #abpoli #abvote… Image
Under the UCP, Alberta had the lowest wage growth in Canada. Image
Under the UCP, wages fell farther behind inflation than any other province. Image
Read 7 tweets
THREAD: Guess it's advanced voting day 1. Let me tell you when I was a Wildrose campaign worker. Youth campaign coordinator to be more precise. I was on Bruce McAllister's team. I looked up to him as a smart, funny Global News anchor every morning growing up. #ableg #abelxn Image
Got a few friends on board who wanted to increase youth voter turnout and instill real change in gov. We beat Ted Morton (who's now simping for Smith). I was elated. My first (real) campaign success. But only two years later, our success was in vain.. #abelxn #abpoli #abvotes
My colleagues and I felt so betrayed. Our hard work against the PC dynasty, momentum for the WR, all but vanished during that press conference. McAllister and Smith turned their backs on the party, their constituents, and all the volunteers like me who believed in them. #abelxn…
Read 7 tweets
Mega 🧵Part 4: This thread serves as a reminder of just some of the reasons as to why racialized Albertans should consider not voting for the UCP this election. #Ableg #Abpoli 1/x Image
Remember when during the height of Covid Kenney went on radio to blame the South Asian Community in Calgary for spreading Covid? #YYC #Ableg #Abpoli…
Remember the lack of supports after the devastating hail storm in Calgary in 2020 and how systematic racism was blamed for these lack of supports? #YYC #Ableg #Abpoli…
Read 12 tweets
Many of us are perplexed by the rise of the Far Right Wing Politics, its attraction of followers, and try to fanthom how it came to be and what's fuelling it. There are many factors, one in particular that will provide a great deal of startling insight. 1/26 #abpoli #skpoli
Looking for images to illustrate the tip of the iceberg, about Racism, and what lies underneath, showing the deeper Psychology of fear, anger, trauma, I found similar graphics that used the pyramid. One particular pyramid caught my eye, and led to this thread. 2/26
It was from 1966 and called the SORO Pyramid, used to illustrate how Communism worked to create Guerrila Warfare. Following the image to its source led to a PDF called 'Unconventional Warfare Pocket Guide' by the Fort Bragg U.S. Army Special Operations Command. 3/26
Read 27 tweets
Mega 🧵Part 3: This thread serves as a reminder of some of the flubs, missteps, & gaffs that characterized the “Rehn of Error” of the last 4 years under UCP rule. Many of these same duds are still around & running again under the UCP banner. #Ableg #Abpoli 1/x Image
Remember during the height of the pandemic with health restrictions in place that a number of entitled UCP MLAs ignored those restrictions and travelled anyway while you dutifully missed your holiday with loved ones? #Ableg #Abpoli ImageImage
Remember designated apologizer Rick McIver begging for forgiveness and saying that it is up to the people of Alberta to judge? Well, people of Alberta, now is the time. Fir, Stephen, & Jeremy Nixon are all running again. Time for them and the UCP to be judged. #Ableg #Abpoli
Read 13 tweets
🧵 Here is a series of lies Smith told during the debate.

Before the whatabout people come around Notley told 4 lies I could ID, Smith told 32. Frankly a list of true statements made by Smith would be easier to catalog.

There were many more moments of dishonest spin….(1/x)
Danielle Smith lie #1
“Rachel Notley Almost Bankrupt Alberta”

Typically, one goes bankrupt when their assets exceed their liabilities. Per the GoA 2019 Annual statement when Notley left office Alberta’s net assets were $23.2B. We had a credit rating of AA1. Alberta was nowhere……
Danielle Smith Lie #2
Inflation was created by the Liberal/NDP Coalition

The post pandemic inflation is a global phenomenon attributed to energy and food prices, Canada has performed comparatively well. Also the Liberal/NDP supply agreement was launched in April ‘22,…… Image
Read 32 tweets
Mega Thread Part 2: The quality of candidates that the UCP attract has always been suspect. Here is a trip down memory lane of some of the more heinous UCP candidates including racists, Nazis, and bigots (of various forms). #Ableg #Abpoli
Meet Myles Mcdougall. Myles stated that Black People Don’t Want Education And Live in “Ghetto Culture”. Myles is the current candidate for Calgary-Fish Creek. #Ableg #Abpoli #YYC… Image
Meet Mark Mantei. Mark claimed that Muslims are the only group that engages in extremism and violence.… Image
Read 10 tweets
Mega 🧵 Part 1: The UCP have been in power the past 4 years. A reminder of the disaster that has been the past 4 years. 1st & foremost, their handling of Covid, the worst-rated response in the country, should be immediately disqualifying. #Ableg #Abpoli 1/x Image
Indeed, the worst-rated Covid response in the country. #Ableg #Abpoli Image
Remember when the UCP lied about rescinding the coal policy and only backtracked after a massive groundswell of opposition? Those coal projects are still on the books. #Ableg #Abpoli Image
Read 10 tweets

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