Yesterday we dunked on the Army after a series of ridiculous comments at #AUSA2021 about Army's role in great power (sorry strategic) competition. That was fun, but seriously let's talk about why the Army still matters in a China scenario & why we don't like talking about it🧵
1. We often envisage a fight over Taiwan as a high tech battle of missile volleys, surface/subsurface engagements, anti-satellite launches, long range air to air engagements, and cyber attacks as the US & China struggle to limit escalation to mainland strikes or nuclear attacks.
2. I think this vision of conflict is likely. But its just the beginning. In order for China to assert control over Taiwan it needs to not only beat aircraft, submarines, surface ships, & missiles; it also needs to take & control the island (i.e. boots on the ground).
3. Here's why we (the US) don't like talking about what the Army's likely role in a Taiwan conflict could be. Because the most likely role for the Army is a campaign to re-take Taiwan after China (due to geography and first-mover advantages) wins an initial hightech struggle.
4. Do we have the political will to send the Army into a Chinese-controlled Taiwan? And do we have the right weapons, training, and concepts to win that kind of fight? That should be the debate at #ausa2021--not the Army groping for long range fires.
5. We also NEED to go through the mental exercise of thinking through how the US rallies economic & political support for this kind of extended ground combat, as well as the logistics of supplying a large-scale counter invasion far from US soil.
6. For the last 30 years, the US designed campaigns that optimized speed & overwhelming decisive advantage (@ElenaWicker is this the right jargon?), but these aren't the US' comparative advantage in the Taiwan scenario, leaving the US w/few tools for the 2nd phase of conflict.
7. The Army can make a compelling argument for manning, equipping, and planning for this 2nd phase of conflict but it requires a political reckoning about the extent of the US security relationship w/Taiwan. That's not an Army fight--thats a political discussion.
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