Thread by @WilliamYang120

In the latest survey data published in @BrookingsInst by @lnachman32, @johncw_Mok and the research team,
57.6% of respondents said they worry that war is a distinct possibility. brookings.edu/blog/order-fro…

When broken down by party identification, we found both a majority of DPP and KMT respondents are concerned about a possibility of war. KMT respondents however are more worried about war than DPP respondents,…

… but both parties’ respondents share the concern, showing that that fear of military conflict spans Taiwan’s political aisle despite a typically high degree of partisanship.

Breaking the responses down by age, we find a striking consistency in responses across age groups. While respondents above 50 are slightly more worried about the possibility of war, younger generations all maintain about the same level of worry.

This finding pushes back against portrayals of Taiwanese youth as naive or less aware of Taiwan’s political realities.

An overwhelming majority – 79% – of our respondents recognized that the frequency of Chinese military actions aimed at Taiwan had increased in the previous six months.

This finding indicates that Taiwanese people can feel a difference in the relative level of peace within the Taiwan Strait from before the escalation began to today.

When asked whether they are more worried than they were six months ago, only 30% of respondents said yes.

Asked whether they think Xi Jinping is more likely or less likely to attack Taiwan than he was five years ago, 46% of respondents said he is more likely, while 45% said the probability hasn’t changed.

These results show that Taiwan residents are aware of, but do not necessarily worry about immediate military conflict with the PRC. They also are far more aware of increased military pressure from the PLA than many U.S. policymakers seem to realize.

Not all Taiwanese people, however, internalize these threats as dire. They are worried, but the majority do not think it’s time to panic.

As the PRC has ramped up the pressure on Taiwan in recent years through both its rhetoric and in its military activity, Tsai Ing-wen’s government has responded by seeking to upgrade Taiwan’s military capabilities and to garner more civil society support for the armed forces.

When asked how they feel about their government’s own ability to defend Taiwan in light of Beijing’s increased intimidation, respondents are pessimistic. Barely a quarter – 25.8% – see Taiwan’s defensive capacity improving, while 35% believe Taiwan is less able to defend…

… itself than before, and 40% say there is no change in Taiwan’s defense capabilities. Clearly, further efforts are needed to persuade Taiwan residents that their military is fully capable of protecting them.