Thread by @tjayaraman

A comment with some initial promise, but quickly bogged down. Reason? Have to convince themselves, somehow, that developing countries must also get on the "net zero" bandwagon. @mauskar @KanitkarT @3rdworldnetwork @bforboseman

https://twitter.com/spacem0nk3y/status/1448478708445052929

First part of paper acknowledges importance of carbon budget, how remaining budget for 1.5 is woefully short. Not exactly an earth-shaking finding -- but good they agree. It was pretty obvious at the time of Paris itself.

Negative emissions brought on board by scientists, to try and squeeze blood out of stone!! Otherwise there was zilch to say about 1.5 deg C as a target, except -- INFEASIBLE. So 1.5 deg scenarios have liberal, walloping doses of -ve emissions.

#SR15 ignored huge negative opinion on the subject and watered it down to "on the one hand -- on the other hand" kind of commentary. Problem starts with the notion and scale of -ve emissions itself. Good that paper acknowledges it. But doesn't ack this is the core problem.

Obvious that developed countries will not commit to any such deployment. Who would? Scientists however write learned paper on "governance gap"!

Sleight of hand move: Use -ve emission scenarios to determine/argue what developing countries should do, but in real world no developed country will commit to the -ve emissions part of it!!

India called it out. Comment argues however that equitable allocation of carbon budgets can be substituted my money and tech. But even authors not very convinced of their own argument!! The track record is overwhelmingly -ve on finance and tech transfer.

The suggestion is a discussion scheduled for the Global Stocktake on carbon dioxide removal (CDR), on commitments etc. IMHO, too late, especially if 1.5 is going to be crossed in early 30s.

At COP26, pressure will be on developing countries to commit now to 1.5 scenario based targets. Developed countries have nothing to say on -ve emissions. The Rt. Hon. is very silent on this. There is no way developing countries can agree to this.

I agree with the last two sentences of comment. Not clear that it requires so many pages to say it though. But then it is a democratic world....

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