Overnight spoke to Chancellor in DC after he chaired G7 finance ministers, on supply chains, inflation, support to heavy industry, and avoiding a trade war with EU over NI protocol...
Said he was “confident there'll be a good amount of Christmas presents available”...
On supply chains Sunak said: British consumers “should be reassured” Govt is doing “absolutely everything we can”... and said events at LA Port showed pressures were global...
I asked him why PResident Biden had got CEOs into the WH to solve the problem, Govt had blamed business
Chancellor said “everyone” including the PM accepts that increasing wages without increasing productivity would be inflationary. He said the move to a high wage high skill economy advocated by the PM would “obviously take time”.
Re support for heavy industry/ gas prices: ““I don't think anyone could accuse us of being dismissive of concern for business”, and said he completely rejecting the suggestion from UK Steel that there was a “hostile environment” for industrial investment and levelling up...
I asked if he would accept heavy industry going under because of gas spike
Sunak pointed to pandemic help, but “in general I believe in a market economy -has served us v well in this country, not Government's job to come in & start managing the price of every individual product”
Asked Chancellor with all the other crises, surely the last thing the country needs is a trade war with EU over NI protocol: “look through [EU proposals] constructively and seriously. And I think the next steps should be for us to intensively work with our European partners”
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NEW French finance minister Bruno Le Maire said he discussed with Chancellor Rishi Sunak at IMF about how supply chain crisis “more difficult” for Britain outside Single Market. He told me “when you ask for more truck drivers.. single market helps facing these bottlenecks”...
In interview with me in DC, Le Maire also said G7 discussed replacing supply chains stretching to China, Taiwan and Korea and rebuilding them in western democracies “building these new value chains among partners among friends has been one of the solutions discussed within G7”
Le Maire reflected that President Biden sounded “Gaullist” in his speech this week saying the US would “never again” become overly reliant on one country or one person for supplies. “I'm a Gaullist. So, I’m fully supportive to that kind of approach...”
In DC at IMF meetings of finance ministers/central bankers as post lockdown world economic recovery gets messy
IMF just released new forecasts trimming growth prospects this year for UK and US on “longer than expected” supply disruptions and “upside risks” from rising prices...
UK growth is now forecast to be the highest in G7 in 2021 after US was downgraded more than the UK... second to US next year... this reflects welcome rebound from worst hit in G7 last year...
IMF points out pattern of global economic damage is opposite of 08-09 financial crisis, now developing countries are being hit harder, with advanced economies faring better from now, because of “greater protection against further Covid-19 shocks from more widespread vaccinations”
Chancellor trying to own the “whatever it takes” phrase as his signature...
“Unfunded pledges, reckless borrowing and soaring debt” are fundamentally “un-Conservative”.. he says defending tax rises, saying tax cuts can come only when public finances on sustainable footing
Re supply chain challenges: “we are determined to tackle them head on”... Chancellor tells Conservative conference
Chancellor says his party is the party of business and the party of the worker ... smallish policy announcement on AI scholarships for disadvantaged young people...
Short speech, mainly reintroducing himself to country in normal times...
US-UK trade talks were obviously going nowhere since Biden’s arrival, not because of a particular snub, but because US is not prioritising new deals at all.
It started to disappear from communiques, calls, even the Queen’s Speech.
NI protocol concerns did not help change that..
Both US Trade Rep Tai, AND her predecessor under Trump, Lighthizer were very aware/ wary that the UK’s strategic decision on closeness/distance to EU post Brexit would cut across scope for US deal...
interesting thing here, is that in brief window quick deal might have been done with Trump, Lighthizer did not appear to believe PM’s promise of hard break with EU, even tho that did transpire, on account of US perception it wouldnt be in UK’s interests:
EUs trade surplus with UK first 7 months 2021, ie post Brexit trade deal, was €82.1bn, notably up from same months in 2020, €56.7bn
Driven by 17.1% or €16bn fall in UK exports to EU.
Trade into EU from every other major partner up.
EU exports to UK grew by 6.2%, or €9bn..
These are pretty stark figures from Eurostat, calculated on a slightly different basis to the UK ONS ones.
Obviously the pandemic period affects most of the 2020 figures and all of the 2021 figures, but that affected all nations.
Only UK exports are down, and significantly so.
different basis used by Eurostat vs ONS includes… not being seasonally adjusted, using International Merchandise Trade Statistics basis eg. shipping part eg engine or wing, internally to subsidiary…
But shd be able to compare UK trade in/out of EU with others on this basis