The retirement of the current order will be messy beyond belief.

At a time of unprecedented domestic polarization, military weakness, and monetary competition, they are pushing unpopular laws, picking unwinnable fights, and printing unlimited money.
You can’t fight your own people, the Chinese state, and the global cryptoeconomy at the same time. You just can’t.
These institutional nepotists have inherited a system they could never build. Their ancestors, the founders, understood there were limits on state capacity. We are now rediscovering those limits.…

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More from @balajis

15 Oct
@charlierward @bbalkus @RoastedFowl @JackNaneek I think this is basically cope.

China falling into a ditch on its lonesome would be mighty convenient but hope is not a plan. Neither is confrontation from a position of weakness.

Here is why I disagree on predictions of Chinese demographic and economic collapse. 🧵
@charlierward @bbalkus @RoastedFowl @JackNaneek Demographics

First, robotics > demographics. Instagram had 13 employees, Kodak 13000. Who won?

Second, they’re flipping every switch to boost birth rates. Three child policy. Intentionally crashing education & housing costs. Less 996, more babies. They are aware and trying.
@charlierward @bbalkus @RoastedFowl @JackNaneek Remember, modern China is capable of absolute hairpin turns in policy. From communism to capitalism. From celebrating Jack Ma to canceling him.

And, potentially, from the one child policy and “incentivized” birth control to the three child policy and “incentivized” birth.
Read 11 tweets
14 Oct
But Ramanujan *was* an experienced amateur.
Not meant as a dunk. From an interesting thread by @richienrg that I nevertheless disagree with. Read it here:
The questions discussed in that thread are critically important.

In a state that purports to be based on science, how do we distinguish between real science (Maxwell’s equations) and ‘science’ (a study that came out last week)?

Independent replication, not insistent repetition.
Read 7 tweets
8 Oct
The thing is, folks get all the surveillance AND all of the crime.

You’d think a police force with sci-fi level snooping powers would at least be able to find the guys smashing windows & stealing cars in SF.

But no. They’re content to let that happen while spying on your lunch.
The power to query Google’s supercomputer to find every human being ever present within a given spatiotemporally delimited boundary…

…combined with the seeming inability to use that power to solve repeated break-ins and burglaries?
Actually, here’s a question.

Can any police department query Google’s DB with a warrant?

And can any police department issue an arrest warrant for someone?

If so, in theory you might work with a rural police department to restore order to Gotham city. Competitive government?
Read 4 tweets
8 Oct
The US government has already named its replacements. By sending manufacturing overseas, the future of hard power is CCP. And by printing trillions of dollars, the future of hard money is BTC.
The BTC point is well debated. On the CCP point, Brose is the former Staff Director of the Senate Armed Services Committee. By his account he could see every line item of America's $700B defense budget, including confidential parts.

This is from his book.
As much as one might dislike the wokes, this fast approaching world will be topsy turvy in different ways.

Many won’t like an environment of aggressive Chinese nationalism or Mad Max-style anarcho-capitalism.

So we need to think now about establishing a decentralized center.
Read 7 tweets
8 Oct
Moderately bullish on India, extremely bullish on Indians.
Why? The Indian state itself is generally on the way up (see below), but it's often two steps forward and one step back.

However, it's now good enough to be a launchpad for globally competitive Indians — to achieve both within India, and outside it.…
The internet works, the power is on. That's all we needed to rise. Image
Read 9 tweets
2 Oct
Interesting post.

But I don't think there's any point in going for the US national government. It is on track to notch world-historical defeats on both economic and military matters. Capturing it is catching a falling knife. Instead, focus on DAOs and startup cities worldwide.
If you believe the premises, you believe the conclusion.

What's up? Tech, Bitcoin, China, India.
What's down? US economic, military, and demographic predominance.
Christian Brose is the former Staff Director of the Senate Armed Services Committee. By his own account he could see every line item of America's $700B defense budget, including all the confidential bits.

And this is from his book.
Read 11 tweets

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