Coalition of the Whining: Allawi, Abadi and Fayyad join those doubting validity of Iraq's election results.…
I suppose the first point to make here is that Allawi said openly several times in interviews before the election that he had stopped campaigning because it was all a fraud and there was no point. His daughter, Sara Allawi, still campaigned, but not Allawi himself.
This also notes that Fatah has opened a new front, calling for the prosecution of Kathimi advisor for electoral security, Muhannad Naim, based on a statement they say shows he was biased & wanted the results to weaken the major blocs.
For there to be a prosecution there would need to be proof of actual manipulation. And while I've not listened to this recording, from the summary in the news, the statement could just be interpreted as an intent to be fair and open the system up to new parties.

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More from @UticaRisk

12 Oct
Some nuance here from Ahmad al-Asadi on Fatah Alliance's "rejection" of the announced results. He emphasizes they are not claiming fraud in the vote, but incorrect announcement of selective, partial results as if they were final.
Aware of skepticism many will have of an alliance of groups with armed wings, Asadi is at pains to emphasize that their opposition to the announced results will be solely through peaceful, legal means.
Asadi is also at pains to emphasize that Fatah is not claiming that IHEC manipulated the results, but simply made a mistake in the selective announcement of them. He assures supporters that final results will be different, & better for Fatah, than previously announced.
Read 6 tweets
11 Oct
What makes this easy is that IHEC's website was terrible beforehand. It looked good in terms of technical design, but in doing research before the election we found it to be useless. Information of outdated and limited in terms of precise info on candidates by district.
This is state TV al-Iraqiya's live feed of information dripping out from IHEC.
Regarding last night's discussion on Sadrist results, in the last couple of hours they are projecting 75-90 seats. If that is correct, the weeks to come will be focused on preventing Sadrist domination to the exclusion of other considerations.
Read 6 tweets
10 Oct
So #Iraq had parliamentary elections today. We await results which are expected w/n 24 hours.

The one result which can be announced is that participation was low. Precise % not released yet, but talk from Iraqi journos is that optimistically they hope it will exceed 40%.
The other observation from multiple sources - some others here on twitter have also noticed this - is that participation from the youth was very low. Participation from older Iraqis appears to have been respectable.
From studying the district candidacies & from what is coming out of multiple Arab TV channels on how it, if there are any big wins they will likely be the Sadrists in Baghdad & the south & Speaker Muhammad al-Halbusi in the Sunni-majority provinces. Specific reasons:
Read 14 tweets
29 Nov 19
Regarding events in Iraq today: first, this is the text of Abd al-Mahdi's "resignation" statement. I would encourage media to be careful about using the word "resignation" to the extent that implies AAM has left or will imminently leave office.…
My take is that this is the end of the beginning of this crisis, not the beginning of the end. AAM simply says "I will submit my formal resignation" to parliament, after noting that he said he was ready to resign last month. There is no clear rule parl't has to accept it.
Notably, AAM's statement contains a lengthy quote from the religious authorities' statement from Karbala today. This is the video of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani rep Ahmad al-Safi:
Read 9 tweets
16 Oct 17
A few comments to follow on political dynamic driving federal Iraqi forces move into Kirkuk, now largely complete today.
First, the operation which began Thurs/Friday was telegraphed ahead of time by PM Abadi as an operation to restore joint control in Kirkuk.
If you thought the op was sudden, not planned by Iraq or out of Abadi's control, see his presser last Tuesday.
Read 30 tweets

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