Thread by @BeirutCalling

The events in Beirut were likely a sending of messages, not unlike what happened in Khaldeh. The armed Amal and Hezbollah members were fired upon when they were about to enter "Christian" areas in Tayyouneh, as a way of saying these areas are off limits to hostile militias.

They are all the more off limits in that the so-called Shia duo was trying to use intimidation to undermine an investigation, a majority of whose victims were Christians. While Hezbollah has not yet reacted, the party has to take into consideration its alliance with Michel Aoun.

Any effort to attack Christian areas in retaliation will likely unite Christian ranks, Aounists and Lebanese Forces supporters. This is definitely something Hezbollah wants to avoid. More interesting is what it may mean for Aoun and Bassil.

Neither is enthusiastic about the Bitar investigation because one of their guys, Badri Daher, is also in the line of fire of the investigation. But neither can can afford to stand against Christian public opinion by asking Bitar to cease his investigation.

This attack against the Amal and Hezbollah gunmen, if it was a Lebanese Forces operation, forces Aoun to align himself even more with Christian opinion, or lose ground politically. And many Christians openly hold Hezbollah responsible for the port blast, whatever the truth.

Geagea has also scored by warning the Shia duo not to enter Christian areas again, or else it will mean crossing a red line. No more attacks a la Myrna Chalouhi, after Bassil had insulted Berri, or a la St. Joseph University during the thawra, when young men shouted "Shia, Shia!"

Geagea seems willing to escalate because he feels that Hezbollah is using the state's weakness to impose its will, including hushing up a crime that destroyed Christian areas. He also wants to show Hezbollah that it can no longer assume Christian passivity.

Interestingly, the situation also squeezes Bassil. Franjieh supported Hezbollah and Amal, but if Bassil were to do so, his Christian support would evaporate, to Franjieh's advantage. But if he opposes Hezbollah and Amal, what remains of his presidential bid is history.

Like the Khaldeh incident, political actors are drawing territorial lines in anticipation of conflict. Hezbollah has ignored the sectarian rules of the game, and in the Lebanese context that can backfire. The party has few options, but that said, who can be reassured after today?

The only path at this stage is a smooth removal of Bitar, perhaps by moving the investigation to the military tribunal, as some have suggested. That won't be easy, however. Nasrallah's mistake was to put Hezbollah in the forefront of opposition to the Bitar investigation.

Hezbollah definitely does not want a sectarian war, however, and has to dial down the tension. Intimidation will breed more conflict, until it spins out of control. The party has to be modest and assume there are things it just cannot impose, because hubris brings nemesis.