Thread by @BeirutCalling

Yesterday I posted a thread arguing that unless a government is formed that can improve Lebanon’s situation, Gebran Bassil would be unable to prepare for his presidency. No Mikati, no Bassil, I argued. Here is a more pessimistic scenario to consider.

Bassil feels that unless he can impose his conditions on Mikati, it is preferable to force him out and support a nonentity like Faisal Karami. Assuming Karami will accept Bassil’s and Aoun’s conditions—no certainty—what will happen?

Very likely Karami will be a subpar version of Hassan Diab, who is already a subpar version of anything that moves. Karami will be undermined by the political class just as Diab was, on the assumption that his failure will lead to Aoun’s and Bassil’s failure.

That means that Bassil won’t really get anything done, but he can blame it all on the corrupt political class that opposes him. Meanwhile, he would control a government that holds parliamentary elections, cheat in favor of the FPM, and allow Bassil to say he’s the strongest Xian.

That government would be a caretaker government if no cabinet is formed after the elections—Bassil’s aim. The caretaker government would also hold power once Aoun steps down in 2022. That means Bassil, by blocking all cabinets, can blackmail the political class into electing him.

Is this a realistic scenario? Yes, but it assumes that Karami will be Bassil’s willing tool, which is not guaranteed. It assumes Hezbollah will go along with it, even if it means alienating Berri and the Sunnis, which it may do—or not do if the situation deteriorates, as it will.

It also assumes that electoral cheating can secure a victory for the FPM, when that’s not invariably true if the margins are too large. Bassil’s and Aoun’s electoral popularity is not ensured if the president is seen as the perpetuator of the people’s misery, as will happen.

We’ll see what option Aoun chooses, given that he’s apparently become his son in law’s ventriloquist dummy. But this scenario is the most destructive one, but Hezbollah may go along with it if it means a pro-Iran president is secured over a pro-Syrian one. Thoughts?