We're letting kids down badly. Infection rates in primary and secondary school age children continue to rise, and are the highest across all age groups. Worryingly now there are also rises in all other age groups. Rates >1100/100,000 in 10-19 yr olds & 600/100,000 in 5-9 yrs 🧵
>140,000 10-19 yr olds with *confirmed infection* (likely many more infected) in the past two weeks alone. These kids could've been vaccinated rather than exposed to the risk of long COVID, and serious illness.
This should be a scandal but DfE, govt don't seem to care about what is mass infection in children - very clearly related to school opening, and spread from lack of mitigations in schools. Remember that we no longer have contact tracing and quarantine of contacts in schools.
It's clear this is contributing now to an overall rise in cases, and likely rises in hospitalisations as we head into winter. Are there any plans to prevent this, this time round? Or are we going to accept 800 and rising preventable deaths each week?
Predictably long COVID numbers have risen in young people, the huge increases seen in these age groups, especially among those reporting infection over the summer. This trend is likely to continue given current infection rates.
There should be an uproar about this, but there isn't much reporting of this in the media.
Please write to your MP using the templates below. Exposing children to these risks in completely unacceptable. Every challenging voice matters.


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More from @dgurdasani1

15 Oct
Please report the fake account below impersonating @DrNeenaJha
The fake account is @DrNeenaJha_ (underscore at the end). Please note that this account has been pfishing for personal information through DMs by impersonating Dr. Jha. Please do not provide personal info to it.
Please be careful- there have been a few accounts impersonating scientists/doctors. I've had one impersonating me recently. Please check the name of the account, and followers to confirm it's the person you think it is, if you're contacted on DM.
Can @metpoliceuk look into this please? This is a person impersonating a doctor, and trying to obtain personal information.
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct
So, it appears that the private lab which wrongly gave out 43,000 PCR negative results was Immensa, a company with no experience of PCR tested awarded a £119 million contract after only being in existence for 4 months. Corruption costs lives.

Guardian article showing the lab was run by Immensa Health Ltd, the same company mentioned in the Byline Times article above. I'm thoroughly sickened to the core by our government right now:

This gets worse - so the founder of Immensa health is also the founder of Dante labs, now under investigation by the CMA for breaking the law with COVID PCR testing

Read 11 tweets
15 Oct
No. A single intervention that reduces *infection* and transmission by 70%-80% is *highly effective*, even if the protection wanes over time. How can someone in JCVI say vaccines reduce transmission 'poorly'? Vaccines + mitigations are the most effective tools.
Just look at the real-world data across the globe, and even in England. The highest infection rates are among the unvaccinated:

Sadly this is down to decisions made by JCVI, and rhetoric put out suggesting it's ok for children to get infected rather than vaccinated. This will have tragic consequences for many families:
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct
Whitty:"There're certainly some quite significant things we got wrong at the beginning, based on assumption it would be like some previous infections & it turned out not to be, & that's inevitable."

No, it wasn't inevitable, unless you ignored pretty much all the global evidence from SE Asia, and Italy at the time, which it appears govt, and many scientific advisors did. & the voices of many UK scientists shouting from the rooftops that the govt was making a grave error.
Prof Whitty said "zero COVID over this winter is a completely impossible dream", adding the hope was to keep it at "relatively low levels".
'Hope' sadly won't get us to 'relatively low levels' when we have case numbers of 45,000 with rises across all age groups!
Read 6 tweets
13 Oct
I have to say I'm a bit disappointed by this piece platforming @mugecevik who says:
"Foremost, respect other academicians and scientists"
This is how she's respected me, and other scientists 🧵
This was the thread she said was 'cherry picking' to 'tell any story' and an example of 'how not to do scicomm'. You can decide yourself if that comment was fair or respectful:
She also made baseless allegations against other colleagues, complaining to their employers without any basis- is this respect for other academics?

Read 5 tweets
12 Oct
Hearing many reports of children/adults who've been LFD+ve and PCR -ve for SARS-CoV-2. Given current prevalence the probability of having infection if an LFD test is positive is extremely high - e.g. 97% for adolescents. 🧵

The calculations above outline the overall positive predictive value (chance of actually having infection if one is positive) at a prevalence of 7% (based on ONS prevalence in secondary school children). This shows that with a positive test, probability of infection is 97%
For groups (e.g. adults) where prevalence is lower (~1%), the positive predictive value (PPV) drops but is still pretty high, at 83%. The exact PPV will depend on prevalence of infection which will differ by region and age group, but is generally high at the current time.
Read 6 tweets

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