The most common question on the forecast thread I posted last night is why I'm not forecasting Q3 earnings to be a lot higher than Q2's, given that the deliveries rose so much.
I created this waterfall chart to show why. It walks from Q2 Actuals to my Q3 forecast, by line item.
Yes, the volumes were up, and yes, I expect the volume increase to drive additional revenue, but the associated costs will also increase with the volume and higher rates Elon warned of recently (chip shortage, ship shortage, expediting and flying parts all over the world, etc.).
SG&A Expenses will also need to go up related to all of the hiring in Berlin, Austin, and elsewhere around the globe not directly related to the factories, so I'm forecasting that "fixed" expense higher by $0.1B.
Apologies for leaving old labels on the chart in my haste earlier today and thank you to those who pointed it out. See correction (the bar on the left is Q2 actuals and the bar on the right is my forecast):
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A discussion of:
“Endless ignorance”
“Lack of understanding”
“A joke”
“Profoundly stupid commentary”
“A complete moron”
Were they apologizing for their past tweets?? (See thread)
No, they were attacking a guy helping people flee Afghanistan. 👀
Here’s a tweet from @economicmanblog in July 2019 (when Tesla was trading at a split-adjusted $50).
Here are some tweets from the self-described “Great” Paul Smith from one year ago.
“Solvency is still a concern for Tesla”
“They can never escape the lack of demand”
“They can never grow out of their declining ASP and sales”
“They can’t grow demand”
This slide is an overview of my latest revision
The next 16 tweets in the thread are updated charts
The next 3 slides are executive summary tables
The final 49 tweets show my detailed forecast assumptions
🤓 $TSLA
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Here's how Tesla's revenue has grown over the years.
These are *actuals*, not my forecast.
2021 is looking very good.
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Here's a S3XY chart showing global vehicle deliveries by model and quarter.
I am projecting just over 850K deliveries for the full year 2021, which would make 70% year-over-year growth. 👀
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