The most common question on the forecast thread I posted last night is why I'm not forecasting Q3 earnings to be a lot higher than Q2's, given that the deliveries rose so much.

I created this waterfall chart to show why. It walks from Q2 Actuals to my Q3 forecast, by line item.
Yes, the volumes were up, and yes, I expect the volume increase to drive additional revenue, but the associated costs will also increase with the volume and higher rates Elon warned of recently (chip shortage, ship shortage, expediting and flying parts all over the world, etc.).
SG&A Expenses will also need to go up related to all of the hiring in Berlin, Austin, and elsewhere around the globe not directly related to the factories, so I'm forecasting that "fixed" expense higher by $0.1B.
Apologies for leaving old labels on the chart in my haste earlier today and thank you to those who pointed it out. See correction (the bar on the left is Q2 actuals and the bar on the right is my forecast):

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with James Stephenson

James Stephenson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ICannot_Enough

14 Oct
Here's my latest Tesla forecast, in the customary 69-tweet format.

Even with this score of charts, I cannot underscore enough: the $TSLA growth story will continue for many years to come.
Here's how Tesla's revenue has grown over the years.

These are *actuals*, not my forecast.

In a week, we'll know the Q3 figure. I'm guessing it'll be a new all-time record over $14 billion.
Here's a S3XY chart showing global deliveries per quarter.

This is the first time I'm tweeting my forecast through 2025.

I'm forecasting 896,024 deliveries in 2021 which would make *almost 80% Year-over-year growth*. 👀
Read 69 tweets
9 Sep
A hardcore smack down to gas cars:
Here’s a look at some of the cars the Model S Plaid beat.

Nurburgring record times per…

First up, this roomy and roofless number from Toyota:
Looks like the Plaid Model S beat this AMG by 26 seconds!

I wouldn’t want to try cramming 4 friends in it tho.
Read 7 tweets
25 Aug
What’s new in $TSLAQ Shortville?

A discussion of:
“Endless ignorance”
“Lack of understanding”
“A joke”
“Profoundly stupid commentary”
“A complete moron”

Were they apologizing for their past tweets?? (See thread)

No, they were attacking a guy helping people flee Afghanistan. 👀
Here’s a tweet from @economicmanblog in July 2019 (when Tesla was trading at a split-adjusted $50).
Here are some tweets from the self-described “Great” Paul Smith from one year ago.

“Solvency is still a concern for Tesla”
“They can never escape the lack of demand”
“They can never grow out of their declining ASP and sales”
“They can’t grow demand”
Read 8 tweets
19 Aug
You can watch ⁦⁦@elonmusk⁩ ‘s AI Day presentation (live) here:

It’s scheduled to start at 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific.
How late will the presentation be?
While you’re waiting, here’s a whole bunch of Tesla charts to look at. 😇
Read 5 tweets
15 Aug
Who's ready for a 69-tweet Tesla forecast thread?

This slide is an overview of my latest revision
The next 16 tweets in the thread are updated charts
The next 3 slides are executive summary tables
The final 49 tweets show my detailed forecast assumptions

Here's how Tesla's revenue has grown over the years.

These are *actuals*, not my forecast.

2021 is looking very good.

Here's a S3XY chart showing global vehicle deliveries by model and quarter.

I am projecting just over 850K deliveries for the full year 2021, which would make 70% year-over-year growth. 👀
Read 69 tweets
11 Jul
Here is my latest $TSLA forecast thread (20 tweets), updated to include actual Q2 deliveries & other forecast changes.

4 tweets summarizing my forecast
11 tweets with updated charts
5 tweets with charts that didn't change, for those who haven't seen them

/1 Image
I expect Tesla to deliver over ~863K vehicles in full year 2021, which would be nearly a 73% increase over 2020. 👀🎉🥳🥂

/2 Image
I expect >$10B of Automotive Revenue in Q2: a first for Tesla (but certainly not for the last time).

The $0.1B charge to Restructuring & Other is the Bitcoin impairment I'm expecting.

SG&A should decline significantly due to less CEO bonus.

Both are non-cash expenses.

/3 Image
Read 20 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!