The most common question on the forecast thread I posted last night is why I'm not forecasting Q3 earnings to be a lot higher than Q2's, given that the deliveries rose so much.
I created this waterfall chart to show why. It walks from Q2 Actuals to my Q3 forecast, by line item.
I created this waterfall chart to show why. It walks from Q2 Actuals to my Q3 forecast, by line item.
Yes, the volumes were up, and yes, I expect the volume increase to drive additional revenue, but the associated costs will also increase with the volume and higher rates Elon warned of recently (chip shortage, ship shortage, expediting and flying parts all over the world, etc.).
SG&A Expenses will also need to go up related to all of the hiring in Berlin, Austin, and elsewhere around the globe not directly related to the factories, so I'm forecasting that "fixed" expense higher by $0.1B.
Apologies for leaving old labels on the chart in my haste earlier today and thank you to those who pointed it out. See correction (the bar on the left is Q2 actuals and the bar on the right is my forecast):
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