Parag and I talked for over an hour about migration and the impact it will have in the 21st century. We covered:
- How current nationalism & the image of immigration is short-sighted historically
- The + borders you have, the - borders you have
- The existence of empires today
- African pop growth is overestimated
- The winners of the 21st century will be the most successful states at attracting immigrants
- Which countries would benefit from receiving hundreds of millions of migrants, and why.
- What does the majority think about migration?
- The problem of Gen Z vs. Gen ɑ
- What do Germany and Japan have in common
- The optimal size for a country
- Terraforming Siberia
- How elderly Germans are changing their minds about immigration&seek it instead of fearing it
- How Bulgaria’s immigration approach has is doomed
- Fertility vs. migration
- How migration will influence the # of states and the concept of nation-states: devolution & aggregation of states
- The influence of SEZ in national regulations
- The appearance of new sovereigns and the role of cloud communities
- The 5 Cs: countries, cities, commonwealths, companies, communities
- The most viable way that cloud cities will appear in the real world
- The importance of regulatory competition
- The consequence on taxation ability
- For states that need money, what’s a better alternative than trying to maximize tax revenue
- Why Finnish governments keep having problems linked to taxes
- What are vacant geographies and what are we going to do with them?
- Programmable geography
This Friday, there is a an important OECD meeting to debate the global minimum corporate tax rate.
These are the stakes for Ireland:
Countries like the US want *at least* 15% global corporate tax.
A few months back, 130 countries reached an early agreement. A handful of others didn't join. At their head was Ireland. Why?
The richest (GDP per capita) country in Europe is *Ireland*. Richer than Germany, richer than Luxembourg, richer than Switzerland.
At 117% of US GDP per capita, Ireland is a whopping 31 percentage points richer than the next big European country, Netherlands, at 86% of US GDPpc
The end of nation-states is coming.
Internet and Blockchain will bankrupt them, by distributing its power to individuals, corporations, supra-national entities, and distributed organizations.
Just at the moment when they need more $ than ever
Thread 🧵
Picture this:
Why? 1. Individuals have + power.
They can access all the info in the world, and reach everybody in the world. The only thing they need is good, catchy ideas.
A single person, Satoshi Nakamoto changed the world with a pseudonym with their Bitcoin paper.
The geography of Egypt is bonkers 🇪🇬🌍
Look at that image of the Middle-East by night. See that "flower" in the middle? That is the Nile.
Egypt has 105 MILLION ppl!
99% of them live in that light area!
That's 3% of its territory!
What else is crazy about Egypt's geography?
🧵
The Nile's banks are between 0.5km and 20km wide (~0.3 to 12 miles). 105M ppl live in that area plus the delta. Crazy. They do that because it's fertile AF
What's outside though? Nothing.
In the west, there's nothing for thousands of miles. There's so much nothing that in 5000 years of history, Egypt has NEVER been successfully invaded from here.
“The future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed.”—William Gibson @GreatDismal
The future is already in the brain of the 200 million cryptocurrency holders. They can be better understood as a country, as an alternative community to nation-states.
A nation-state citizen doesn’t question the sovereignty of the gov
Doesn’t question the validity of its currency
Doesn’t fathom a world without the TVs and radio stations and notary-publics and certification organisms that make the nation-state what it is.
They wrap their heads around 20th-century country flags.
They can’t fathom the end of the nation-state, just as 1500s-era Europeans couldn’t fathom the end of the omnipotent Catholic Church.
The emergence of cryptocurrencies reminds me of the emergence of writing and currencies. These are obvious to us now, but they were weird to their contemporaries.
Let's have a look 🧵
The parallel with fiat currencies is better known, so let's start with it.
Early on, ppl bartered. Inconvenient.
So they started using some currency.
First, it was something scarce, easy to value and to divide into smaller pieces (=fungible), and with some intrinsic value. Eg, salt (thus "salary")
If you catch COVID, the risk of developing COVID Chronic Fatigue Syndrome are 3,000x higher than those of suffering a bad vaccine side-effect. That illness can leave you out of work and energy for the rest of your life.
The most long-lasting part of Long COVID is likely Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, which so far has no cure and can last decades.
Your likelihood of catching it from COVID is ~2-3%, and it's worse for young ppl than old ppl