Thread by @MrJThomason

I have *UPDATED* my price & timing predictions for #Bitcoin $BTC after lining up price history & considering the varying interpretations of the macro backdrop and cycle behavior.

Estimated Peak Date: December 17/18
Estimate Price Range: 193k-253k

More below👇 (with charts)

The price & timing predictions are predicated on the following rhyming patterns in all cycles thus far:

1. The 1st upside impulse above the 1.618 golden ratio usually peaks near where the next bear market low will be, before a major pullback.

2. Price successfully retests and holds the 1.618 golden ratio.

3a. Price peaks between the 2.236 and 2.382 fib levels.

3b. The bear market low is approximately 85% (+/- 2%) down from the peak

**3a and 3b are marked as such because they confirm each other in each cycle.

4. Price usually peaks within appx 150 days of the mid-cycle low, marked by the final retest of the Golden Ratio.

5. Cycle behavior following mid-cycle low follows a three wave pattern, where 1st/2nd wave retests the bear-low & the third "wave" is the parabolic blow-off top.

Here is what this looks like in the 2013 bull run.👇

And the same marks in the 2017 bull run👇

And now this leads me to the 2021 bull run 👇 (the 2017 price fractal from the mid-cycle dip is in faint white). Explanation follows.

1. First impulse above the Golden Ratio. the 2021 version is a strange blend of 2013 and 2017. The first price impulse looks much more like the 2017 cycle, but ended up going way above the predicted bear low line (pink line)

*Price has retested this line in wave 1.

2. If you looked closely, both 2013 and 2017 had double tests of the Golden Ratio (one very quickly and another after a longer consolidation). 2021 followed this same pattern, though the PA in between those retests differs from both previous cycles.

3. Considering the previous two points, it is reasonable to suggest the bear market low in 2022/2023 will end up around 38k. That's my estimation, at least.

Calculating that the Bear low is usually approximately 85% down from the peak, that puts the peak around 253k.

4. As the 1.618 Golden Ratio has been a major support during the Bear Market, so the 2.236 and 2.382 levels have consistently predicted the peak price range from each of the previous cycles. This price range is 193k (2.236 level) to 253k (2.382 level).

It is possible that price overshoots the range entirely. I predict price will hit the upper end of that price range. As far as the date range, until cycle behavior says otherwise, I do not see a peak past December.

My view, of course, is one of many. #CTM is full of amazing people who are offering different views regarding price/date predictions OR models. Here are just a few:

@jclcapital @Crypt0Jed1 @JesseOlson @JohalMiles @fairfreedigital

And, of course, there are others who are not in #CTM (or maybe they are?) that offer different models or price/date predictions:

@HalvingTracker @therationalroot @misconfig_exe @intocryptoverse @ChartsBtc @100trillionUSD

Consult all possibilities. Do your own research.

EDIT! I can't believe I left out @AllenAu11 , king of on-chain and top-cap model guru. Sorry my friend!