Thread by @KesariDhwaj

PART 1: Modi - Amit Shah - Shaheen Bagh
- Many are blaming AS for incompetency in handling Shaheen Bagh, and farmers protests.
- Here's a contrary opinion
- 1st, if there is incompetence, and if anyone has to be blamed for it, it has to be Modi.
- Why?
- Because AS +

+ serves at his pleasure, and it should be clear to everyone by now that ALL ministers in GOI follow directions set by NM.
- Coming to Shaheen Bagh (SB) and famers protest (FP), bot of these were/are much more than simply a bunch of people protesting against certain laws.
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- Shaheen Bagh was a carefully orchestrated, high profile event where Muslims (minority) was openly pitted against GOI.
- It was a high decibel, high optics protest with very careful social media management.
- BJP as it is has been painted as anti-Muslim, and this protest was +

+ meant to create a confrontation between Muslims, and anti-minorities/anti-Muslim GOI.
- The 'protest' had already been marketed worldwide, and attracted attention of world media.
- Special attention needs to be paid to the way disparate, so-called NGOs were brought together
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- Not to forget the careful manner in which women, and children were put upfront.
- Phenomenal amount of money was used to mobilize & sustain this protest.
- The end game was to get GOI to react, and use force against Muslims.
- And preferably have many protestors die in +

+ police action.
- Had this happened, the images would've been splashed worldwide, which it was hoped would force western governments to bring censure against GOI.
- Agent provocateurs amongst Congress, Islamists, and likes of AAP, would've set-off fires across the country.
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- The playbook was similar to Palestine.
- Where one sided narrative about Israeli atrocities against Palestinian Muslims is only amplified.
- In all this, please don't forget visit of US President and Delhi riots.
- Even courts have said that there's evidence to suggest
+

+ it was pre-planned.
- My guess is that these riots were planned as 'reaction' to expected police action against Shaheen Bagh protestors.
- But calculations went awry because GOI did not bite the bullet.
- And these riots were staged in parallel with US President visit to +

+ draw world attention to Shaheen Bagh, and 'oppression of minorities' under Modi.
- Yes, GOI 'inaction' did cause inconvenience to commuters & locals (including me!) but that is nothing compared to the cost we would've paid, had Shaheen Bagh protest been allowed to achieve +

+ its objectives.

PART 2: Modi - Amit Shah - Farmers Protest
- In my opinion, farmers protest is the biggest challenge mounted against Modi government till date.
- It is a highly complex, and sensitive issue, whose ramification goes beyond the farm laws.

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- From Day 1, the protests at Delhi border morphed from farmer protest into Sikh protest.
- It was projected as yet another struggle of Sikhs against a repressive Delhi government.
- And built into this oppression narrative was the Jatt Sikh pride, and how as a martial race +

+ they'll forcefully take their due rights, as they've done in the past.
- Not to be left behind, we had references to Khalistan, & Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale. And how Punjab, unlike Kashmir, can't be cowed down!
- And of all the people, we had Nihang Sikh jathaas becoming part+

+ participate at the protest site.
- Songs released at the time by various leading Punjabi singers were full of incendiary lyrics.
- What would've happened if GOI had used force to get these protestors to vacate the Delhi border?

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- First, how much force would've been required, and what would've been the consequences of any such action?
- It goes w/o saying that hundreds, if not more, would've been killed, and many more injured.
- You can fully expect that some Sikhs would've tried to take the battle +

+ to the police, and the whole area would've seemed like warzone.
- Second, whole Punjab would've been on fire!
- Punjab Congress government would've refused to act against the protestors in the state, and I'm pretty sure they would've resigned.
- What next?
- President's rule +

+ which would've meant that GOI would've been left to douse flames in Punjab.
- Khalistanis, and ISI have already would've stepped into this melee, and tried to make best use of the situation.
- And did we forget the tool-kit?
- In spite of GOI acting with massive restraint +

+ which many consider as abdicating their responsibility towards L&O, we ad external and internal actors ready to malign India, and the GOI for their atrocities against farmers!
- Red Fort incident would've been a sideshow if GOI had used force against these protestors.
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- I can understand the frustration amongst mango-people with respect to what looks like state not doing its duty.
- And for placing political interest above national interest, or Raj Dharma.
- Even I've had bouts of anger, and frustration, and some of my tweets reflect that.
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- But it is my considered opinion that no national interest, or even Raj Dharma, would've been served by using force to evict both farmers, and Shaheen Bagh protestors.
- Had it done so, it would've walked into a well laid out trap, and ambushed comprehensively.
- What we+

+ would've got is a spiral of every increasing violence.
- GOI would've had to use more violence to control the fires which would've been lit, had it gone hard against the protestor.
- Countless would've been killed, and parts of country would've been burned to ashes.
- Apart +

+ human cost, their would've been massive economic cost.
- And additional economic cost in the time of Corona would've broken the back of the economy.
- Modi could've done what many here want him to do, and appeared as a strong leader in the eyes of his constituency.
- Rather +

+ he's today at receiving end, and taking a bad rep because I think between him and AS, they're looking at the bigger picture.
- Which politician would choose a course of action which will invite brickbats?
- Again, in my considered opinion, a larger Raj Dharma is being served +

+ here by so called 'inaction'.
- Farmers protest is a political problem, and its solution does not lie in using bullets.
- It requires a political solution, which has been partially achieved.

BTW, to people comparing police action against Baba Ram Rahim supporters, and farmers protest - Can anyone tell me what level of force will be required against 10,000+ protestors? What happens after the lathi-charge is initiated? Before you know, police will have resort to +

+ firing to contain, and overwhelm such a large number of people. So, how many casualties are we talking about here? 10, 20, 50, 100? And how many injured? I can bet my month's salary that police firing would've been called as Jallianwala 2.0. What would be the consequence +

+ of these deaths, and injuries in Punjab? It is easy to advice a course of action w/o thinking through its consequences. Unlike us keyboard commandos, NM and AS have to consider N number of inputs, and consequences. And think long term. Simply look at the complex scenario we're+

+ faced with as a nation which needs to be addressed by the GOI - manage economy hit by Corona, internal migration and unemployment, providing food and other relief to people, anti-CAA protests, India-China stand-off with real possibility of short, intense clash, Taliban +

+ takeover of AFG, etc. And on top of all, we expect GOI to use force to evict 10,000+ protestors from Delhi border as if they are squatters on roadside? And let loose a chain reaction which will most probably burn down Punjab? Why?

.@aloks1nha perfectly sums-up the end game of these protests:
"India's Tiananmen Square moment"
- Powers behind these protests want to see a violent clash between people and GOI. And hope to see 100s of dead bodies.
- This will not only derail GOI, but our growth story as well.

Remember, you're dealing with people who will not hesitate to burn India down to gain power. These are the sorts GOI is dealing with. It is easy for it go toe-to-toe with them but its take political wisdom to not fall for it, think about the nation, and chart a different course.

It is very much possible that this innocent soul was killed to give boost to this flagging farmers protest. When nothing else worked, religion, blasphemy and plain murder are being used to gather eyeballs.
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