A bit more on fossil fuels and West Virginia. The thing that always strikes me is that the state stopped being a coal-fueled economy a *long* time ago. Here's the share of coal mining in total compensation (a better measure than share of GDP, as I'll explain) 1/
Joe Manchin began his political career in the state legislature in 1982; at that point coal was responsible for 16 percent of payrolls. But it plunged in the years that followed, thanks to strip-mined coal in Wyoming and automation 2/
So King Coal had been dethroned a generation ago. It's fallen even further since, but the big decline is far in the past 3/
What about fracking? It's pretty big business — but it's very capital-intensive, and employs remarkably few people. Here are shares of state GDP and compensation in 2019 4/
And it's not clear why WV residents should care about returns to fracking capital, which presumably accrue mainly to wealthy out-of-state investors. When it comes to wages, fracked oil and gas are de minimis 5/
At this point fossil fuels loom much larger in WV's imagination than they do in the state's real economy 6/
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Scott Sumner has an interesting thread about his recent paper on the "Princeton school" of macroeconomics, which includes among others yours truly and a guy named Bernanke (what ever happened to him?) 1/
As always, Adam Tooze's latest, this time on coal and the West Virginia economy, is interesting and thought-provoking. But also, unusually, a bit credulous 1/ adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-46…
Tooze's numbers rely a lot on a study I cited for direct coal employment; but a lot of the rest of that study is, well, dubious 2/ wvcoal.com/news-2/latest-…
First of all, the study counts coal-fired electricity generation as part of the coal industry. But think about it: if we phased out coal, WV would still be generating power, just from other energy sources. Including this sector indicates an attempt to inflate the numbers 3/
A few thoughts on today's economics Nobel, which was of course richly deserved (and it's truly tragic that Alan Krueger isn't able to share in it, as he surely would have) 1/ nobelprize.org/prizes/economi…
This was a prize more for methods than for conclusions; the laureates were leaders in the "credibility revolution" in economics, the exploitation of natural experiments to sort out causation and the effects of policy 2/
Since the prize was about methodology — not even about the facts as much as about how to determine those facts — you might think it wouldn't be relevant to current policy debates. However ... 3/
Some idle speculation on platinum coins, 14th amendment, and all that. First of all, using any of these gimmicks would send the signal that we're a troubled country — but of course we are a troubled country, so that's not a deal-killer 1/
Nonetheless, the Biden admin would like to avoid using a gimmicky solution. First best is to shame Rs (and get business pressure to back up the shame) into acting responsibly. 2/
Barring that, which seems unlikely, get Sinemanchin to agree to eliminate filibuster on debt limit by warning of consequences if they don't. If they won't do that, use reconciliation. 3/
OK, the important stuff: I watched the 1st two episodes of Foundation, and ... I'm not sure yet. The show is gorgeous and fun to watch — which may be all that matters. But is it *Foundation*? 1/
FYI: Foundation had a huge influence on my young self. Mathematical social scientists saving civilization? Hey, I got as close as I could. But the novels are aggressively uncinematic 2/
It's not just that there's very little shoot-em-up action, that it's basically guys talking to each other. The whole thrust of the first book and a half is that math rules, and heroes are irrelevant 3/
Leona Helmsley was right: only the little people pay taxes. Well, OK, the richest 400 individuals pay about 8 percent taxes. But that's not much 1/ whitehouse.gov/cea/blog/2021/…
We should all be furious about this; but maybe especially the merely affluent. Take my favorite from the movie Wall Street: "A $400,000 a year working Wall Street stiff, flying first class and being comfortable." According to IRS calculator, that guy pays 28% in fed income tax 2/
Not even considering payroll taxes, which are 15.3% for most Americans but negligible for the rich, and state and local taxes, which are highly regressive 3/