Thread by @ProfColinDavis

The case numbers for the South West of England had quite a few of us scratching our heads in September ... 🧵

I only just made that last graph now, and you might say it's easy to see in hindsight, but here's @OliasDave plotting the data a month ago (and already then, "Still convinced there is something odd going on").

https://twitter.com/OliasDave/status/1440011015052214279?s=20

This graph, also from @OliasDave in September, is a particularly nice way of visualising how weird the results for the South West were relative to the rest of the country.

https://twitter.com/OliasDave/status/1441101894567415809?s=20

I live in the SW (and follow the data!) and I couldn't understand it. But you have to trust the data, right? Who am I to say the numbers are wrong? Suggesting that would only invite more of those "Dr Doom has sour grapes because the numbers aren't bad enough for him" comments.

And presumably they have systems in place and do obvious checks, and there's someone competent in charge who oversees these systems and will take responsibility for the reliability of the data?

Oh.

Well, they must presumably have some accreditation process. They wouldn't just let any old bunch of cowboys run a lab that was providing data that are critical for pubic health?

Of course they wouldn't ...

And if Dr Harries says this lab (which was awarded a contract without tender) was accredited, then it must have been, right?

Oh. theguardian.com/world/2021/oct…

I don't know how Dr Harries ascended to her current position. If there were any accountability in this government, she'd already be out of a job. How many more people have to die before this happens?

As an addendum, here's another nice plot showing just how pronounced the drop-off in cases was in some parts of the South West. It beggars belief that no-one in (what was) Public Health England noticed this at the time.

https://twitter.com/StroudCorona/status/1449502993972350978?s=20

And in case you think I'm being too harsh on Dr Harries for this one episode .. this is just the latest in a string of follies. I'm sure someone else will have the videos, but here are some highlights:

"masks don't work"
"The UK can't learn anything from Italy" (cont'd)

"there's no shortage of PPE for healthcare workers"
"testing is for poor countries"
"Covid doesn't enter care homes via hospital patients"
"children are more likely to be hit by a bus than catch Covid at school"
"CEV people need to be brave and get out there"
etc.

At the risk of stating the obvious, false negatives can have very bad consequences.

https://twitter.com/shepsywepsy/status/1450195354817863683?s=21

https://twitter.com/shepsywepsy/status/1450195354817863683