Thread by @gdemaneuf

@arambaut @BioSRP @bmj_latest @BallouxFrancois @Ayjchan One fault in the argument, @arambaut:
You are assuming that the mine workers were infected with RaTG13.

All we know is that
1. They tested IgG+ to some SARS like BatCoV and had symptoms very similar to COVID-19

2. RaTG13 (then BatCov4991) was sampled from that Mine in 2013

@arambaut @BioSRP @bmj_latest @BallouxFrancois @Ayjchan Now as you know, there would likely have been a mosaic of BatCoVs somehow similar to RaTG13 in that mine in 2012.
It’s not because we only know of RaTG13 that it’s all there was.

From there the Mojiang Passage Theory can make sense.

@arambaut @BioSRP @bmj_latest @BallouxFrancois @Ayjchan What we would need is much more sampling of that mine, at different times of the year too.

But there is not much available - and access is restricted. So this is not going to happen soon.

@arambaut @BioSRP @bmj_latest @BallouxFrancois @Ayjchan Another possibility is to retest the sera of the miners.

But all that we got is some rather odd back-pedalling from the WIV, explaining that the samples never tested positive against all evidences and the theses unearthed by DRASTIC.
Great.

@arambaut @BioSRP @bmj_latest @BallouxFrancois @Ayjchan Personally I would suspect that you are more likely to find a backbone closer to SARS-CoV-2 somewhere else in south Yunnan or north Laos.

RaTG13 obfuscation may point to the fact that the WIV sequenced it in 2018 after calling it ‘boring’, because they were already working…

@arambaut @BioSRP @bmj_latest @BallouxFrancois @Ayjchan on implementing the first steps of DEFUSE, especially the one that explicitly calls for the revisiting of positive sera from Yunnan.

"Subtask 6.4 Test previously-collected human sera from Yunnan Province to assess SARSr-CoV QS spillover (WIV)."

@arambaut @BioSRP @bmj_latest @BallouxFrancois @Ayjchan In all, between the two EHA papers of 2017 and 2018 they only identified 15 positive cases in close to 1,800 people at risk (2.7% and 0.6%) and all these 15 were subclinical.

So clearly the logical thing was to go back to the sera of the miners, 3 of which had died.

@arambaut @BioSRP @bmj_latest @BallouxFrancois @Ayjchan Which is why they suddenly sequenced ‘boring’ RaTG13 back in 2018.

Something that the WIV would be very keen to hide because it opens the DEFUSE can of worms, and the backbone question.

@arambaut @BioSRP @bmj_latest @BallouxFrancois @Ayjchan @threadreaderapp unroll