Today's must-read article, with some selected (highly alarming) quotes and my 2 cents below on why we can't afford NOT to invest in alternative protein R&D and infrastructure:
theguardian.com/environment/20…
theguardian.com/environment/20…
"Eight or more variants of avian flu, all of which are able to infect and kill humans and are potentially more severe than Covid-19, now regularly rattle around the world’s factory farms barely noticed by governments."
"Earlier this month, China’s CDC identified several mutations in two recent H5N6 cases. The spread of H5N6 is now a 'serious threat' to the poultry industry & human health, said Gao Fu, CDC director, & Shi Weifeng, dean of public health at Shandong First Medical Univ."
"Little attention was paid even when Anna Popova, chief consumer adviser to the Russian Federation, went on TV to warn 'with a degree of probability' that human-to-human transmission of H5N8 would evolve soon and that work should start immediately on developing a vaccine."
"Major outbreaks over the past 30 years including Q fever in the Netherlands and highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks have been linked with intensive livestock farming."
"Scientific evidence shows that stressful, crowded conditions drive the emergence and spread of many infectious diseases, and act as an 'epidemiological bridge' between wildlife and human infections."
UN FAO: “Avian influenza viruses are evolving into a large, diverse virus gene pool… A pathogen may turn into a hyper-virulent disease agent; in... mass rearing of genetically identical animals... an emerging hyper-virulent pathogen will rapidly spread within a flock or herd.”
"'We are seeing an unprecedented explosion in outbreaks of new bird flu viruses, which historically have presented the greatest pandemic risk and certainly have the potential to be worse than Covid.'"
My 2 cents: For climate mitigation, higher intensification of animal ag is necessary to produce meat at scale the world demands w/out using up literally all habitable land (an ecological disaster). However, this pressure is completely at odds w/ mitigating risks to public health.
As has been clear for years, there is exceedingly little consumer appetite for a wholesale dietary shift toward plant-based diets despite relentless consumer education campaigns & behavioral nudge interventions.
However, what DOES show traction are alternative protein products.
However, what DOES show traction are alternative protein products.
Plant-based meat has experienced an enormous surge in consumer demand despite currently being sold at a price premium (typically 2x-4x the cost of conventional meat) because it is still being made at such a small scale (<1% of global meat market by volume).
Virtually all of this demand is coming from omnivores: people who *want* the experience of eating meat, but are looking for more sustainable, safe choices.
Plant-based meat (& cultivated meat, just beginning commercial entry) can satisfy this need w/out consumer compromise.
Plant-based meat (& cultivated meat, just beginning commercial entry) can satisfy this need w/out consumer compromise.
However, big investments in fundamental R&D plus supply chain & manufacturing infrastructure are necessary for alternative proteins to satisfy >>1% of global meat demand. We cannot afford to wait for market forces alone: govts & NGOs need to step up to accelerate this transition.
We know the costs of inaction. On the climate front, there have been at least 18 climate-linked weather events this year *in the U.S. alone* costing >$1B each in damage, with total U.S. losses >$100B in the first 9 months of the year.
noaa.gov/news/us-hit-wi…
noaa.gov/news/us-hit-wi…
On the public health front, estimates vary widely for the economic impact of Covid19 on the global economy, but they all point to losses on the order of $10 trillion or more.
theguardian.com/business/2020/…
theguardian.com/business/2020/…
By comparison, there has been only about $100M invested in public R&D funding for alternative proteins globally, *across all years* in total.
That's 1000x less than the climate cost 2 tweets above, and 100,000x less than the pandemic cost 1 tweet above.
gfi.org/blog/tracking-…
That's 1000x less than the climate cost 2 tweets above, and 100,000x less than the pandemic cost 1 tweet above.
gfi.org/blog/tracking-…
In my humble opinion, there is hardly a better ROI opportunity to be found by governments and NGOs—who end up largely footing the bill for these societal and ecological disasters—than investing in alt protein R&D and infrastructure. /end
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