One of the enduring myths of the last few years is that “before we joined Europe we traded more with the commonwealth & empire.”

It’s amazing how embedded this myth has become to the point that even some remainers believed it.

But it’s utterly wrong.
For the last 200 years Britain’s biggest trading partner has been Europe - not the empire and not, later, the commonwealth.

This makes sense both from geography as well as comparable industrial development reasons.

However there was a time in history when this wasn’t the case…
The time when UK traded more with empire than Europe was during the “trilateral trade” era - when Britain exported manufactured goods to Africa, slaves to America, then agricultural goods back to UK.

Of course this was not free trade” but “coercion trade”.

& coercive trade is…
Coercive trade is

1. State directed trade (ie forcing Africa to take UK goods
2. Slave trade (forced labour)
3. State conquest (colonies in Africa & America

The “nostalgia for free trade” has nothing to with empire.

It’s nostalgia for a time when Britain could force others.
Indeed Britain’s greatest growth accompanied trade with other SIMILAR countries not during empire but post World War II.

Trade that didn’t just build big Georgian mansions but reached into the working classes and improved their lives.

That’s why we joined the EEC, not to…
…we didn’t join the EEC because we wanted to trade with Europe, we joined because we already were and wanted more, easier trade.

Not building an economic model on ideas of 18th century Jamaican rum imports.
Brits oft confuse empire as “one rolling development” but it isn’t.

There was a “coercive” empire.
Then the later imperial pomp era.

By the time british empire reached 1920s it may have been strategically important and a point of much national trade pride..but economically…
By the 1920s it’s not even clear the country was benefiting much from the empire apart from as a “gilded stage” for modest wealth public school boys to exercise dreams of empire. But for 90% of UK population it did little for them.

Which of course brings us to Brexit…
The upper middle class demographic miss empire far more than the rich and far more than the poor.
It enabled minor public school boys to act like courtiers.
The British working class had lives comparable to the European poor. But our upper middle class were “superior” to theirs.
But this superiority rather than being earned was a leftover of the 1st coercive empire.
In other words it’s a “legacy benefit” with a declining future - it had NOTHING to do with imperial free trade.
But as slavery is out of fashion they’ve convinced themselves its “free trade.”
That’s why Brexit isn’t really nostalgia - it’s actually more “false memory”.

It’s convincing a population that didn’t benefit from the empire..that the enormous growth they enjoyed trading with Europe never happened.

It’s a 1920s upper middle class dream.

/ends
ADD 1

Difficult to put stats on all this in one place - but worth looking at this to give you an idea.

In 1900 at the very height of "Britain's imperial pomp" - trade with European countries made up 40% of total. The rest of Empire - less than a third.

Its the empire of myth.
So when someone tells you they want "to go back to trading with the commonwealth" ask them "which back" they mean...

...because it didnt really exist as they think...outside of the slave trade era.

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More from @nicktolhurst

19 Oct
+UPDATE+

Uptake of vaccine by Premier League players greater than media reports.

It also now looks that many players waited till end of last year's football season to vaccinate.

It now turns out 81% of players have had at least one jab & 70% of players now double vaccinated.
At the end of September there were only seven clubs in the Premier League where more than 50% of players were fully vaccinated.

The huge rapid leap in double vaccination looks to have been a large clump of PL players not wanting to "risk" vaccination during season.
I pass no judgement on whether there's a case to be made for young sportsmen to "delay" vaccinations to a sporting "off season"...

...what I will say is this:
Media reports of PL players being "anti-vaxxers" seems widely over-blown or even...simply a lie.
Read 4 tweets
17 Oct
Boris Johnson is the expression of "Brexitism national will".

What Brexit is..is what Boris Johnson wants it to be today, not what Johnson said it was last year - which could be something utterly different.

That is why you must get rid of Boris Johnson 1st.
All flows from that.
Its hard for many to grasp this.
Indeed especially hard for many remainers who are immune to Johnson schtick.
It seems so..."unbritish".
But that is where we are.

To deny this is to deny the journey this country has been on.

We cannot even begin to roll this back until he goes.
)0% of people dont the difference between free trade, the WTO & a customs union.
Why should they..they have busy lives to lead.

Brexit thus can only "percieved" as a "feeling" or a "picture" thru which hopes/emotions are projected.

It has no concrete meaning beyond this.
Read 6 tweets
16 Oct
+UPDATE+

Matt Hancock to be rejected by the UN after publication of Britain’s disastrous handling of the Covid pandemic.

Boris Johnson had attempted to place former UK health minister Hancock in an top United Nation’s Africa Covid role but UN now look to have turned this down.
Matt Hancock had apparently been advised by Boris Johnson that his appointment was “in the bag” and so announced his position before checking with the UN.
BBC confirms story.

UN nations, particularly African countries, resented having someone who was in charge of one of Europe’s worst Covid response being foisted upon them by Boris Johnson
Read 4 tweets
14 Oct
OK don’t hate me but I’m coming round to the “world cup every 2 years” idea.

There are more reasons than one might think at 1st glance why this makes sense.
1. The premier league is turning into a super league in itself with 5-6 other European clubs dominating football.

The gap between these and most clubs is widening every day.

International football is now, strangely, a more equalising force in football than club football.
In other words as club football gets more detached from the mainstream - international football is filing this gap by providing genuine completion where money is not the overriding insurmountable factor.
Read 15 tweets
12 Oct
I see a lot of people utterly dispirited at this poll..however it should be noted that if this was the result in an election…

…Johnson would be history and Britain would now have a Labour-led govt.
Aim should be to get Tories below 310 seats.
Don’t care about the final parliament composition.

The current polls are in this territory- although not convincingly so.
We’re basically at margin of error territory where we know 1-3% green votes shift to LibDems or Labour every GE.
I’m other words everything being equal the current polls suggest most likely outcome a labour led coalition dependent on LibDems & nationalist parties.

Not ideal for labour.
But if you’re looking for most likely context to give UK a shot at SM/CU quite probably the best outcome.
Read 4 tweets
10 Oct
+UPDATE+

UK civil servants have been told to “workshop a trade war with EU” as the UK govt now believes the current trade deal agreed with the EU is so bad that a trade war might not be as costly in comparison.
In essence the implication is that the trade deal negotiated by this govt is so bad that the additional costs of a trade war might be bearable in the short term in order to achieve the govt’s goals.
There’s also been talk that the EU if forced to retaliate would likely choose “iconic industries” which would not affect local EU supply chains & where local substitutes exit - such as 🇬🇧 whisky or salmon.
Read 5 tweets

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