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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
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12 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I see a lot of people utterly dispirited at this poll..however it should be noted that if this was the result in an election…

…Johnson would be history and Britain would now have a Labour-led govt.
Aim should be to get Tories below 310 seats.
Don’t care about the final parliament composition.

The current polls are in this territory- although not convincingly so.
We’re basically at margin of error territory where we know 1-3% green votes shift to LibDems or Labour every GE.
I’m other words everything being equal the current polls suggest most likely outcome a labour led coalition dependent on LibDems & nationalist parties.

Not ideal for labour.
But if you’re looking for most likely context to give UK a shot at SM/CU quite probably the best outcome.
Also counter intuitive for some but I don’t think LibDem final vote tally doesn’t matter as much as the focus on specific seats.

Davey is playing a cannier game than Swinson did.

Going after southern soft Tory seats rather than splitting remain-left vote.

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More from @nicktolhurst

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
10 Oct
+UPDATE+

UK civil servants have been told to “workshop a trade war with EU” as the UK govt now believes the current trade deal agreed with the EU is so bad that a trade war might not be as costly in comparison.
In essence the implication is that the trade deal negotiated by this govt is so bad that the additional costs of a trade war might be bearable in the short term in order to achieve the govt’s goals.
There’s also been talk that the EU if forced to retaliate would likely choose “iconic industries” which would not affect local EU supply chains & where local substitutes exit - such as 🇬🇧 whisky or salmon.
Read 5 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
9 Oct
Many people still haven’t got it yet:

➡️ Northern Ireland is the new Brexit.

Because the UK govt realizes it can’t win anything, it can’t gain anything, with Brexit it must invent new wars to fight in order to “beat Europeans”.
The whole “trigger article 16” debate is essentially the “no deal better than a bad deal” meme rehashed.

A Brexit without point, without victory must fight new wars to justify itself.

That point and role is now Northern Ireland.
This is why I “bang on about Northern Ireland” so much as some people put it.

The UK govt (correctly) realizes that the EU cares more about peace in Northern Ireland than the UK govt does. This realization gives the UK govt a point it can lever to create trouble.
Read 5 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
4 Oct
Many people assume elections are won or lost by how many of the other party you "convert" to voting for yours. This is largely a myth.

UK elections are won by winning more swing seats by:
1. Encouraging opposition voters not to vote
2. Encouraging more of your supporters to vote
In UK marginal constituencies (seats with a majority of less than 3%) many seats can change hands simply by one party's voters staying at home more than normal & a few more of another's voters voting more.

In other words govts can change without many people changing their vote.
The way FPTP operates in UK this makes swing voters in swing seats super crucial.
Swing voters are obviously easier to switch to & from voting.

So in theory the next UK election only needs 85 000 Tory voters in certain seats to decide not to vote to wipe out the govt's majority.
Read 16 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
4 Oct
Some context for British people on N. Ireland:

1. Over the last 25 years the Unionist vote in Northern Ireland has gradually declined from 51% to now circa 44%.

Regardless whether N Ireland stays in UK for the next decade it's now no longer, in any sense, a "unionist province".
While religion is certainly not a "100% determinator of N irish political identity" it's still a useful gauge of demographic trends:

2. The only demographic with more Protestants than Catholics are the over 50s.
The average working age person in Northern Ireland is a Catholic.
3. In 1983, almost 90% of Northern Ireland's MPs were unionist.

The last election (2019) marked the 1st time unionists no longer formed a majority of N Irish seats at Westminister.
Read 8 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
29 Sep
A point that’s often forgotten by remainers is the key role 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 plays in the next Labour govt.

The assumption (probably correct) that SNP wins nearly all 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 seats if Tories lose…actually makes 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 role in next Labour govt even more crucial…not less.

Here’s why…
The key point is Labour are a 🇬🇧union party. Out of conviction & self interest.

They won’t want to “lose” Scotland. No party wants that on their watch.

So the question is what can Labour offer the most anti Brexit part of the UK that will convince them to not go independent..?
Any coalition that is in anyway dependent on 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 seats and particularly on cooperation with the SNP can offer only 1 thing that might avoid 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 independence ->

A huge softening of Brexit.
It’s the only thing Labour have got it can give - and its of course what Labour members want.
Read 10 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
18 Sep
It’s become clear from reports in the last few days that Australia has been deceiving 🇫🇷 for as long as the last 18 months.

Countries can play hard ball on commercials interests - everyone does it, incl. the 🇫🇷.

But such an action by allies on defence pacts is something else.
The upshot of this is the 🇫🇷 will conclude that in foreign policy terms Biden is continuity Trump. But the 🇫🇷 have always been less dewey-eyed about the US anyway.

🇫🇷 will strengthen focus on EU & assume that 🇦🇺 isn’t a serious dependable ally.

What does this mean for 🇬🇧?
The AUKUS stuff will please the anti-EUers but less reported on is how little 🇬🇧 benefits from this. 🇺🇸 will get lion share of any new contract while 🇬🇧, reliant on 🇫🇷 good will for so many things: immigration control, trade flows etc will simply think Britain an reliable sh*t.
Read 7 tweets

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