OK don’t hate me but I’m coming round to the “world cup every 2 years” idea.

There are more reasons than one might think at 1st glance why this makes sense.
1. The premier league is turning into a super league in itself with 5-6 other European clubs dominating football.

The gap between these and most clubs is widening every day.

International football is now, strangely, a more equalising force in football than club football.
In other words as club football gets more detached from the mainstream - international football is filing this gap by providing genuine completion where money is not the overriding insurmountable factor.
2. Regional groups (UEFA, CAF etc) are simply filling the “in between years” anyway. So if FIFA doesn’t do this - regional groups will anyway with nations league and Africa cup of nations already every 2 years.
3. With 15 or so clubs from just 5 European countries sucking in all the best players in ever larger numbers the “disconnect” between most fans in the world and “their” players is built in & widening.

Making the World Cup more often balances out this disconnect.
4. A big argument against more World Cup is it would make FIFA “more money” - sure there’s greed behind this idea and FIFA has certainly had huge corruption problems but this ignores the fact that FIFA is world football.
Football should exist for the world not 15 European clubs..
..if FIFA members want more World cups this is far more Democratic - for all FIFA’s faults - than running the game so that top Premier league clubs can maximise revenue on summer tours which brings nothing to the countries (S America/Africa/ East🇪🇺) where these players come from.
5. Why is the Euros qualification so long with so many fixtures & small teams and more teams in the finals?
Because countries want more football!

So why is it alright to do this for Europe but not for FIFA?

Why not streamline Euro qualification but with 2year World cups?
The more you think deeply about this more you realise resistance to the idea is based on only really 3 things:

1. Assumption of bad faith by FIFA
2. “It’s always been 4 years”
3. Player burn out

The 1st is irrelevant, if members want it.
2nd is nostalgia
3rd doesn’t add up…
The player burnout issue is irrelevant as international football - even with 2 year WCups - is still a tiny part of football calendar.

Clubs have no problem filing a season with over 50 games + summer tours..but overwhelming majority of teams at World Cups play only 3-4 games!
England are playing 4 games against San Marino & Andorra this Euro season. If England were to come 2nd their qualification to euros would involve 12 games.

You can win an entire World Cup with just 7 games.

This is madness.
Essentially the argument against a 2 year World Cup is for continuing to fill up international football with current meaningless games like against Andorra at expense of increasing meaningful games like a World Cup.

In fact you wouldn’t even need to increase the number of games!
There are 55 UEFA members.
About 15 of these play every qualification despite knowing they will never qualify for a World Cup.
10 qualify basically every time.

We need to streamline the qualification process so that everyone has a chance to qualify with fewer meaningless games.
So how about World Cup qualification for Europe:

1. Pre-qualifier groups to get 25 lower ranked nations down to 15

2. 15 Groups of 3 teams of the above 15 & top 30 UEFA teams.

➡️ Qualification for top 30 teams now 4 games instead of 10

➡️ More “equal games”for lower teams
Of this was done then even though World Cup we held every 2 years…most teams would play exactly the same number of games.

And what’s more the number of games would contain more that were better balanced.

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More from @nicktolhurst

12 Oct
I see a lot of people utterly dispirited at this poll..however it should be noted that if this was the result in an election…

…Johnson would be history and Britain would now have a Labour-led govt.
Aim should be to get Tories below 310 seats.
Don’t care about the final parliament composition.

The current polls are in this territory- although not convincingly so.
We’re basically at margin of error territory where we know 1-3% green votes shift to LibDems or Labour every GE.
I’m other words everything being equal the current polls suggest most likely outcome a labour led coalition dependent on LibDems & nationalist parties.

Not ideal for labour.
But if you’re looking for most likely context to give UK a shot at SM/CU quite probably the best outcome.
Read 4 tweets
10 Oct
+UPDATE+

UK civil servants have been told to “workshop a trade war with EU” as the UK govt now believes the current trade deal agreed with the EU is so bad that a trade war might not be as costly in comparison.
In essence the implication is that the trade deal negotiated by this govt is so bad that the additional costs of a trade war might be bearable in the short term in order to achieve the govt’s goals.
There’s also been talk that the EU if forced to retaliate would likely choose “iconic industries” which would not affect local EU supply chains & where local substitutes exit - such as 🇬🇧 whisky or salmon.
Read 5 tweets
9 Oct
Many people still haven’t got it yet:

➡️ Northern Ireland is the new Brexit.

Because the UK govt realizes it can’t win anything, it can’t gain anything, with Brexit it must invent new wars to fight in order to “beat Europeans”.
The whole “trigger article 16” debate is essentially the “no deal better than a bad deal” meme rehashed.

A Brexit without point, without victory must fight new wars to justify itself.

That point and role is now Northern Ireland.
This is why I “bang on about Northern Ireland” so much as some people put it.

The UK govt (correctly) realizes that the EU cares more about peace in Northern Ireland than the UK govt does. This realization gives the UK govt a point it can lever to create trouble.
Read 5 tweets
4 Oct
Many people assume elections are won or lost by how many of the other party you "convert" to voting for yours. This is largely a myth.

UK elections are won by winning more swing seats by:
1. Encouraging opposition voters not to vote
2. Encouraging more of your supporters to vote
In UK marginal constituencies (seats with a majority of less than 3%) many seats can change hands simply by one party's voters staying at home more than normal & a few more of another's voters voting more.

In other words govts can change without many people changing their vote.
The way FPTP operates in UK this makes swing voters in swing seats super crucial.
Swing voters are obviously easier to switch to & from voting.

So in theory the next UK election only needs 85 000 Tory voters in certain seats to decide not to vote to wipe out the govt's majority.
Read 16 tweets
4 Oct
Some context for British people on N. Ireland:

1. Over the last 25 years the Unionist vote in Northern Ireland has gradually declined from 51% to now circa 44%.

Regardless whether N Ireland stays in UK for the next decade it's now no longer, in any sense, a "unionist province".
While religion is certainly not a "100% determinator of N irish political identity" it's still a useful gauge of demographic trends:

2. The only demographic with more Protestants than Catholics are the over 50s.
The average working age person in Northern Ireland is a Catholic.
3. In 1983, almost 90% of Northern Ireland's MPs were unionist.

The last election (2019) marked the 1st time unionists no longer formed a majority of N Irish seats at Westminister.
Read 8 tweets
29 Sep
A point that’s often forgotten by remainers is the key role 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 plays in the next Labour govt.

The assumption (probably correct) that SNP wins nearly all 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 seats if Tories lose…actually makes 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 role in next Labour govt even more crucial…not less.

Here’s why…
The key point is Labour are a 🇬🇧union party. Out of conviction & self interest.

They won’t want to “lose” Scotland. No party wants that on their watch.

So the question is what can Labour offer the most anti Brexit part of the UK that will convince them to not go independent..?
Any coalition that is in anyway dependent on 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 seats and particularly on cooperation with the SNP can offer only 1 thing that might avoid 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 independence ->

A huge softening of Brexit.
It’s the only thing Labour have got it can give - and its of course what Labour members want.
Read 10 tweets

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