Thread by @redistrictAZ

Want to follow along today? Here is the link: azgov.webex.com/azgov/j.php?MT…
Comment Link for today's meeting: forms.gle/FuMGNiHSiuPjZF…(should be functioning by 8:15)

24/7 Comment Link: irc.az.gov/contact-us

You know the saying::: tell them what you are going to tell them. Tell Them. and them tell them what you told them...

That is good advice. Adding one bit more: Tell them again. Remind them. And then remind them again. And again. Don't stop unitl there are #FairDistrictsforAZ

Stats for new LD Plans
LD5.0:
Partisan Bias, 0.7%R; Efficiency Gap, 0.5%D; w/districts 5C, 13D, 12R

LD5.1:
Partisan Bias, 3.0%R; Efficiency Gap, 1.0%R; w/districts 5C, 12D, 13R

Stats for new CD plans
CD0:Partisan Bias, 4.7%R; Efficiency gap, 2.1%R w/dist. 3C, 2D, 4R
CD1: Part. Bias, 5.7%R; Eff. gap, 2.6%R w/dist. 3C, 2D, 4R
CD2: Part. Bias, 5.7%R; Eff. gap, 2.8%R w/dist. 3C, 2D, 4R
CD3: Part. Bias, 4.1%R; Eff., 0.8%R w/dist. 4C, 2D, 3R

Ch. Neuberg says we heard loud and clear (yesterday) Tucson and Phx do not want to be connected for representation. And then makes a statement justifying E-Sessions.

Draft map discussion - And Com. Neuberg keeps talking: - a philosophical conceptual reaction - extreme districts going district by district.She asks: Is this our state? Is there something we can do to moderate? 15/15 is/isn't balanced.

And she is still talking -- Asks the mappers: You know the data. Can we do this.

Mehl: we have a lot of pop. imbalance - 5K, 10k here or there - it is time for us to commit to be closer in all these districts and give guidance to mapping team - CD are much more finer tuned...

Can anyone spell L-A-W-S-U-I-T

And once more Com. Mehl is driving the discussion to a point he (and Republicans) want.

Com. Lerner - 15/15 puts people at the table - it is a compromise - would love to have competitiveness within a district - don't know if that is achievable - maybe we will learn today ..

Ch. Neuberg says there is a difference between 10pt. spread and a 30 pt. spread - a distinction in relative comfort/safety of representatives.

Ch. Neuberg: A philosophical question - do we change our spread?
Mehl - however ... want LD differences to 500 ppl. , not thousands;
Neuberg likes it on many levels -- COI, but incredible balancing acts - some communities may have to be combined for the "sake the greater good"

says @ndc_doug - under/over pop is not a intentional decision -- it is HUGELY time consuming to get to zero differences
Mehl - NOW is the time to make the shift

More Neuberg - if we can not succeed- we have to go back to the public and tell them.

Mehl moves to use 5.1 as starting point. Both are a long way no matter what we do -- looking at MarCo -

Neuberg -Let's look at both maps - and then let's decide where to start.

The 5.0 goal - is balance some districts for competitiveness
1, 4, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13

Wickenberg is in D5; Black Canyon City is inD3

Buckeye goes from D2 to D22
More changes

Com. Lerner asks about changes to Latino coalition districts - @ndc_doug says no changes -

Summary sheet is on website - went from 3 comp; to 5 compet. In our "range...

Going to5.1...

Using 3.2 as a base - unite Kyrene SD; Oro Valley and Marana - was not possible in this map -- bec. pushed 16 up- LC district 23 pushed into Yuma in a different way .. we can get there big bigger scale change than directed.

5.1 map is now population balanced.
Lerner - LC maps have changed - as a reminder -- they were changed =in V4.1

V5.1 has 6 competitiveness and 6 districts w/in 15% point spread.

Mehl moves to start w/ 5.1. Neuberg dramatically nodding her head
York says starts inMarCo and works outwards - this is perhaps a better strategy like D1, D2, and still pay respect to Latino areas -

"take in more minority communities"

Lerner: Don't support this.. Tempe is now four districts. Tucson splits Oro Valley; Chandler in split in3; Gilbert/Chandler - from COI comes with bigger issues --
This is built off of a map we did not vote for -- I wonder about VRA impact

says @ndc_doug does not have Latino Coalition districts
York "suggestions"
Lerner - very concerned VRA fits w/ COI - not supportive
Neuberg: do we need legal counsel re: VRA before voting

York: D11, 24, 26, 22 almost similar to LC districts in MarCo.
Lerner - we have constitution
Mehl: we have been so careful with COI and Latino COI are so strongly defined - we have COI driving predominantly latino communities
D 11 splits S. Phx in 3 districts;

BrettJohnson -- all of the data is based off of Timmons and NDC - first question goes back to mapping - last two columns-- we (legal) can add - no separate legal VRA data

Com. Watchman - looking for - does 5.1 meet VRA requirements? Does it incorporate LC preferences - I hear it does not..

Total plans submitted buy the public as of this am

Data dive into 5.0 and5.1 re: VRA
@ndc_doug 3 columns
Com. Watchman asks explanation of VAP data - Census has 100+
NonHisp- Native Am; does not include Hisp. and Nat. Am.
Any part -- key factor tends to focus on Non-Hisp bec. adds up to 100%; if used any part cane more

the data sheet:
D11, D 20 - 26 are all "performing" maj-min districts -D 21 only performs in AG race, not Gov race

In 5.1
D11, D 20 - 24 and D 26 ;;D23 performs only inAG, not Gov race

Mehl- 5.0 has one more Latino district; 5.1 has same number as current districts?
@ndc_doug doesn't have perf. numb. for current districts.
Mehl; "Fairly concern that is correct; we have 7 Latino and 1 Am Ind."

Lerner: in 5.0 please clarify what Com. Mehl was just asking about --
Current 7 Latino/1 Am Indian
5.0 - 8 Latino/1 Am Indian
5.1 7 Latino/1 Am Indian

Lerner: to be clear Latino pop has increased 30%; Latino coalition has proposed an additional district to reflect this growth

Neuberg looks to go into E-Session '
York - I read that D21 is a preforming district - "Qualifies as far as I am concerned."

says @ndc_doug each version has one district that performs in one race, but not the other;' D21 in one and D23

Moved into E- Session

Filling a bit of time while the @ArizonaIRC is in E-Session. Here is a quote from Colin Powell that seems apropos for the Commissioners, their lawyers and consultants:

“Never let your ego get so close to your position that when your position goes, your ego goes with it.”

Clarification -- Dr. Johnson @ndc_doug said that there are 6 competitive districts in 5.1 . According to the Timmons table and the IRC criteria, there are only 5. This is the same as with 5.0 .

​The under 7% range is there for these districts: 2, 4, 9, 13, and 23.

Here is a screenshot of a spreadsheet that shows the Dem vote share in the Timmons tables for each district according to the 2 maps (5.0 and 5.1) @ArizonaIRC voted that between 46.5 and 53.5 would be deemed competitive.

Live Now.

Lerner: Moves to approve 5.0 legislative map. Meets criteria for COI, general compactness; nice job on VRA; balanced pretty well; doesn't divide up as many communities. A good starting point.

Watchman seconds. Mehl opposes. 5.1 has more competitive districts (IT DOES NOT) and strong onLatino COI.
Lerner: OnCompetitiveness - 5.0 has more comept. districts based on how we have defined competitive.

Neuberg: Deeply appreciative of all groups to submit maps and to make clear the five of us need to make our decision on our collective wisdom. Reluctant to adopt org maps that have not gone through deliberative process of the five of us looking at it first/

Watchman calls for vote.
Neuberg- blah, blah Make your last arguments
Lerner - previously had discussion about LC maps and asked that they be incorporated. Remind us that we did on our own volition asks that they be incorporated
York - we did - and upon further review I feel

the rendition of 5.1 is better - regarding the six elements of the constitution.
Neuberg - feedback informs us; does not constrain us.
Motions fails 3:2 - Neuberg and the two Republican partisan commissioners vote in a block. AGAIN.

Mehl moves and York seconds 5.1 approval. "we've made our points clearly. York says it will meet LC need in a more "robust" manner.
Motion passes; 3:2 Again the two partisan Republican appointees and the Independent Chair vote in a block.

Lerner - start w/LD11 - LeVigne spilt in 3 districts; LC and others have testified - also Guadalupe.. split 11/8/12
Look on how to connect --go back to coalition boundaries to 8/11/12
York: Leave airport in D8 - blah, blah push Tempe out to 101 in D8; move pieces for D9/D10

Lerner asks about changes proposed for Tempe
Says shift D8 west - should not be in south; Tempe has trad. had a bit of Guadalupe..
York- D12 is long on pop. true.
Lerner -- some adjustments

Primary direction - follow borders --
Lerner - also in E Valley -- take look at west Mesa - currently split horizontally - Asian community growing; look at vertical split instead.

Changes were made to make the districts more competitive - move Tempe East to 101? Mesa - horizontal and vertical shifts may not be working -- D9 -- lost some of those connection

As we bringD8 out of Phx we will push into Mesa - think that will connect Lerner - Be careful with D9 - very competitive right now -as you move it east it will not be..

Dr @ndc_doug explains impacts of rotations -- alternative - move D8 north into Paradise Valley
Lerner -make D9 and D10 more vertical - some of these modifications are going be hard to fix - will run into split of COI - beyond LC.

Lerner - my focus at this point is to connect communities and then follow up on pop perfections --
Neuberg - open but counter to some of what we've heard that communities are E/W, not N/S time:10.41

Dr. @ndc_doug says Broadway was used because of Light Rail
Lerner - yes - Light rail does not go out that far
Neuberg - how would this impact competitiveness?
Dr @ndc_doug - doesn't help -
Lerner - Bec of changes inLD 11 - already going to shift
Lerner - right now I am

Looking at COI - not competitiveness

I see a trend of inconsistency from Ch. Neuberg; competitiveness can not be looked at as a goal; yet changes that impact competitiveness can not be considered as a means to unify COI -- Don't know this game - making up the rules as she goes

Lerner -- look at three districts right intuit area - D11 changes - knowing the COI.competitiveness -can you give us option 8, 11, 12 13, 14, -- I could give you lots of possibilities - but better for me to give you perspective - and you create options

We all want make Pop work, acknowledge COI and competitiveness
may be some changes to come back to 3.2

Gotta say this: @ArizonaIRC Commissioner Lerner is truly disciplined - intellectually, emotionally, and personally. She is regularly told what she asks for can't happen, is out-voted, talked over, ands just keeps calmly asking for what she thinks is right. #RESPECT

Mehl jumps in with his advice on districts in the South - moving the conversation to a new areas. W/O closing the disc. in MarCo. Mehl sounds irritated.

D7 is an odd district

Watchman asks for location of 22 tribes

Watchman raises request from Navajo Nation - believes it was dismissed to quickly yesterday -- all options seem to be open again -- Def COI and pop. Deviation
Neuberg: Are you asking us to consider that?
Watchman: yes

Neuberg: what was to pop deviation?
Watchman: Navajo Nation is looking to increase CVAP to 60+
@ndc_doug we can integrate and show impact and id additional changes -
Mehl: That would be a separate map --
@ndc_doug a test map -- accept onset or the other - two different

choices on one map..

overlay of Navajo Nation

Dr @ndc_doug on pop deviations - in densely pop. areas there are thousands of people --
Lerner speaks to LD 26, and others
Jumped from marCo; to South, to Navajo nation and now pop in LC suggestions
No closure; no agreements..

Dr @ndc_doug freeway loops - keep together? LC divided them
York asks how far west are you going into Lavigne?

It feels like these commissioners are AGAIN jumping to the areas they know and the surrounding areas are collateral interests

Lerner - talks about an"extra" district -- don't know what she means
York "mansplains" it for her... here's what I like.. Passionate about these two districts D11; D22 D26 and D24 11:22 time

Dr @ndc_doug leads a tutorial to see overlay of maps inAIRC hub ==
Navajo NationOverlay - thick red line is Navajo Nation request..

Neuberg: they want to decrease the pop so they can increase CVAP-
@ndc_doug yes - that is what their letter states; pop deviation 221,588 = 16, 795 - -7.05%
Mehl jumps to defense of White Mountain Apache tribe - 58/63 won't affect how they are represented...

Com. Lerner tends to agree - we seem support quite a bit of it -- some communities asked not to be included --
@ndc_doug we could add this in a test map
Mehl says - we have consensus -can we just move on --
Watchman - can go either way
Neuberg - don't need a motion -

Lerner - could take a look and make amends here and there -- @ndc_doug we do now have this map fully integrated into the system
Neuberg asks for counsel to weigh in -- Legal says no motion necessary - you could "lock-in" - you could vote on that

Lerner: Now sure we are ready to lock in anything
D4 - - grabs bit more s. scottsdale? or push into camelback east.. St Rt 51 a bit - could get to 50/50 district

Waiting for Neuberg to counter she doesn't want to have hard number targets for competitiveness.

Lunch Break and move into CD
Mehl wants to throw out some goals- combine Oro Valley and Marana - more districts "improve Latino percentage";
Lerner calls out comments - asks: Oro Valley should be part of Casas Adobe Move into D 17 ? and then...

Casas Adobes and Marana more natural community
Mehl - Here we might want some forgiveness on population (Now he is transparent!)

Go E; go W; play around w/ what happens - can be some adjustments -- seen lot of material - comments from yesterday
Neuberg: reconvene and go into CD -- possible to look at LD - It's possible -- biggest time factor is pop deviation
Talking about coming back next week -

Lerner - agree - if we get to basic agreement on what the districts look like - then we can tweak for pop.
@ndc_doug says to tweak for competitiveness means moving 1/2 the district.
Mehl says - I think we said go be creative

Neuberg says: that's my strength -give goals no directions. 2 hour break
Coming back to CD maps and maybe more on LDs