A must read analyses of the status of the current Saudi-Iranian dialogue from the pre-eminent Saudi expert on Iran mei.edu/publications/w… 👇👇
"Given the dominant role of Iran’s security apparatus, it is understandable why dialogue began with them and not with the Iranian government. These bodies either have the final say over Iran’s foreign policy or are extremely close to the decision-making elite".
"There are many suspicions about Iran’s motives for trying to begin dialogue with Saudi Arabia, especially at the current time".
"Perhaps its most important motive is to revive the stalled nuclear talks with the P5+1. Therefore...many observers of Iranian affairs believe that Tehran has begun to pursue a path to cosmetically resolve its disputes with the Gulf states directly, especially with Saudi Arabia"
Reuters quoted Iraqi officials who claimed to have participated that an agreement had been reached to exchange diplomats, open diplomatic missions, and so on — in addition to building a railroad connecting Mashhad, Karbala, and Makkah. All of this is totally false"
"Iranian request to open a consulate in Jeddah may have been aimed at allowing its citizens to perform Umrah after suspending this ritual in 2015.. Saudi’s decision to consider the request has nothing to do with the tensions with Iran, but is a completely separate issue"
"Another Iranian motive for talks is to convince its public that Raisi’s govt is reversing its dire economic situation/isolation.Iran also has motives related to Iraq. It wants to keep many of the Iraqi figures with close ties to Tehran in control of Iraqi institutions"
Given all this is Tehran willing to take true measures, rather than empty steps, to rebuild confidence with Riyadh? The key question remains whether Iran is really prepared to let go of the past and engage fruitfully in the regional order outside of its expansionist projects" 👈"
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
