Actually not. No “baby”here. Lebanon’s geopolitical value evaporated long ago. Also the new Saudi leadership is no longer in the check writing business it has other priorities mostly domestic.
The old game brilliantly played by Lebanese politicos of getting Gulf money to fight the left/Iran etc has been exposed as the scam (that it always was) and new Gulf leaders have woken up to that.
Older Arab leaders had an emotional connection and personal relations in Lebanon that led them to make (often illogical) decisions that only fattened Swiss bank accounts of Lebanese leaders but this is over now.
Lebanon deserves all support to get back on its feet (particularly emergency food and medical aid) but writing checks to politicos or the government is over. If Hizbollah’s capture of the state ends then trade, tourism, investment will all come back on proper commercial terms.
Also the US and France should get over the idea that they can convince Gulf states to write checks on their behalf. The US/France are much richer per capita than a Saudi with huge domestic obligations and if they want to send political aid they should ask their own taxpayers❗️

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More from @aliShihabi

21 Oct
A must read analyses of the status of the current Saudi-Iranian dialogue from the pre-eminent Saudi expert on Iran mei.edu/publications/w… 👇👇
"Given the dominant role of Iran’s security apparatus, it is understandable why dialogue began with them and not with the Iranian government. These bodies either have the final say over Iran’s foreign policy or are extremely close to the decision-making elite".
"There are many suspicions about Iran’s motives for trying to begin dialogue with Saudi Arabia, especially at the current time".
Read 8 tweets
20 Oct
This tweet is so ill advised. First fans have done this as sign of happiness at the acquisition and should be appreciated. Second this stupidly opens the door for people to say “the Saudis cannot tell us what to wear”. Fire the PR company with the coach! #idiots
If anything the club should import proper Arabic dress and give courses in how to dress in them for those that want it. Would be great to see thousands of fans in thobes and ghutras.
Read 4 tweets
24 Jul 20
Some personal experience with the Lebanese financial crisis. In 2001 (20 yrs ago) I was involved in an effort to acquire a stake in Bank Saradar in Lebanon. After our due diligence we found that the bank had invested more than its capital in Lebanese govt. debt.
I then told the CEO "your bank is technically bankrupt since this debt will never be repaid". (Govt. debt then was about $30 billion). He smiled and told me all Lebanese Banks are in this same situation.
I then went to see the late PM Rafik Hariri (father not son) and asked "how will this govt. debt ever be repaid". He said "I expect it will be paid down as part of an overall regional peace settlement".
Read 7 tweets
28 Jan 20
I think it is important to note that Saudi Arabia did not attend the unveiling of the "Mideast Peace Plan"
It's driven by US and Israeli domestic politics and does not take into account any domestic or regional political considerations for any of the Arab governments close to the US.
Nor does it have any realistic chance of getting implemented so all downside and no upside for US allies in the region.
For example it gives Hamas a veto power over any progress basically giving the Israelis reassurance that they will not have to give anything up?
Read 4 tweets
20 Oct 18
For all those who have poured scorn on me for “defending the indefensible,” let me say the following:
Many of you don’t give a damn what happens to Saudi Arabia, my country, either out of ignorance or malice toward the country or out of hatred for Trump, and you see this tragic event as a convenient weapon to use against the president.
Jamal was murdered in a horrific fashion by people who should be and will be treated as criminals, having carried out a stupid, botched operation that should have never been attempted in the first place.
Read 13 tweets

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