Thread by @wolf_vukovic

Today $DWAC went up 365% after a merger with #Trump’s new media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the idea of which is to launch an alternative social network to disrupt the FAANGs.

I read TMTG’s pitch deck (did MY OWN research!!!) and here’s what I think👇🧵

1/ The idea is to create a new media powerhouse, with a streaming and news service that aims to disrupt CNN, $NFLX & $DIS+ (Fox news too?), and take on $AMZN in the long run.

The biggest impact ofc was the announcement of launching a new social network to disrupt $FB and $TWTR

2/ The name of the new social network? TRUTH Social.

Mission: “stand up to the tyranny of Big Tech.”

The premise: $TWTR and $FB banned Trump from their platforms but did not ban the Taliban.

3/ Does this new media empire stand a chance in its battle against Big Tech?

Let’s start from its competitive advantages.

It touts Trump's 89m followers on Twitter, 33m on Facebook and 24.5m on Instagram = 146m in total (before getting cancelled on those platforms)

4/ If only 20% of those join the new social network, that’s already 28m users. If 50% join, that’s 70m. In comparison, Twitter has 200m active users, valued at $50bn.

Minor issue here: You can’t add up those users, as many of them overlap on all three platforms.

5/ I would go with only the Twitter followers as a reference, keeping in mind that many followers were there to mock and insult him.

So yeah, 30% to 50% of that seems like a more realistic target. Which is still an impressive 26m to 45m potential. Not bad for a start.

6/ They also cite a survey according to which 30% of social media users (unclear from which platforms) would use a Trump-backed social media platform. 54% GOP, 24% Indep., and 12% of Dems.

7/ Also, the stock went up 365% (!) in a single day (and is still growing after market close), with volume at 470 million, so there obviously is huge interest here.

No doubt the numbers on the TRUTH Social will be big.

8/ The second premise is that Trump’s media empire will build a “non-cancellable” global community (obviously aiming at the cancel culture) and will “galvanize the conservative media universe”.
The target is obviously the conservative community.

9/ A bigger issue here is how the platform will keep itself from being cancelled by Big Tech.

It even mentions the example #Parler , a conservative social media app that became no. 1 most downloaded app in early 2021 after being removed by Google and Apple from its stores.

10/ It is unclear how exactly TMTG might prevent that from happening if it morphs into Parler on steroids.
Sure, there are many conservative news&media platforms out there, existing freely, but a conservative social network might get shot down quickly. This is the biggest threat

11/ Finally, it boasts Trump’s celebrity status and previous showbiz successes like The Apprentice and Miss Universe, in an effort to show that they know how to create entertaining content.
There is no doubt that TMTG will be entertaining.

12/ SWOT? The biggest weakness is the social media platform and how easily it can be targeted for a ban by the incumbents.

The biggest strength is still a very high demand for Trump, even (and especially) outside the US.

13/ The DWAC stock? It has potential to become a new meme star. No doubt about that. A 365% upward move in a single day dwarfs even $GME and $AMC.

A good long term investment? Too politically volatile 🌶️🌶️🌶️ for my taste.

14/ Thanks for reading, I hope you’ve enjoyed it, and feel free to disagree in the comments 🙂

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Update: this has gone up another 50% overnight. (or over 600% since yesterday).

When are those shorts coming up, eh?