1. Here are the 24 month Lake Powell projections to Aug 2023. Both last month (Sep) and this month (Oct) projections are shown for "minimum probable" and "most probable". #coriver #climatechange @R_EricKuhn @jfleck 
2. The Min Probable projections for both Sep and Oct are well below safe minimum power elevation of 3525 for most of the projections and even below the top of the penstocks at 3490 for some time.
3. The Most Prob projections for Sep and Oct keep Powell in reduced releases to Lake Mead, 7.48 maf, thus ensuring Mead also drops.
4. Oct projections are ~15 feet ( ~ .7 maf) lower compared to Sep due to new period of inflows used in the model. (1991-2020 vs 1981-2010). This is step in right direction but these inflows are still about ~ 1maf higher than inflows 2000-21.
5. The Sep 24 month study was said to have 10% chance of occurring but preliminary results of a study I am working on suggest that the likelihood is between 20% and 30%. Can't handicap new Oct results, but they are also greater than 10% chance.
6. The 1991-2020 inflows that are ~1 maf more than the 2000-21 inflows will also result in projections that are too high should the hydrology of the last 21 years continue. Old 1981-2010 inflows were > 2 maf higher than 2000-21.
7. The lowest elevation shown is ~3467 or ~3 maf, about 12.5% full for Powell. Again, greater than 10% chance this occurs.
8. I had to modify my plot to include elevations and volumes below 3490. Never thought I'd have to do this.
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