This is a good day to explain how specific TIPS breakeven inflation rates are calculated. 1/
For any given TIPS, the breakeven rate is normally the difference between its yield and the yield of the nominal Treasury with the closest maturity date. 2/
For the 5-year TIPS sold at auction yesterday, that's currently the on-the-run 5-year (0.875s of Sep26). After next week's auction of nominal 5s, the Oct26 will probably (it's up to the market) become the comparator, because it'll be closer. 3/
For the old 5-year TIPS (the 0.125s of Apr26), the comparator is the nominal 0.75s of Apr26. /4
There's even an index of Treasuries that are comparators for TIPS, for measuring relative performance. /END
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Time for a look at tomorrow's 5Y TIPS new-issue auction. $TIP #Treasuries 1/
The last couple of October 5Y TIPS auctions (in 2020 and 2019) went off at yields significantly lower than the yields on the previous issue, from April, despite maturing six months later. 2/
That's mostly because Oct-maturing issues accrue inflation for six months after the April-maturing issues stop accruing & those months (March-Aug) historically have been better months for inflation than Sept-Feb, when discounting is rampant & gasoline demand is lower. 3/
A thread about Treasury Index month-end duration extensions 1/
On the last business day of the month, usually at 3pm, bond indexes get rebalanced. Securities issued during the month that fit the index criteria get added, and ones that no longer fit (most notably, ones that mature in less than a year) come out. 2/
The effect generally is to lengthen the duration of the index. And generally, the increases are biggest at the end of the quarterly refunding months of February, May, August and November, when auction sizes are largest. 3/