Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Treasuries

Most recents (16)

Rising volume in $XLK, $VTV, and good enough $SMH transparently prepared the ground for improving #ES market breadth – but the one factor that made me reconsider the requisites of the medium-term (bearish) outlook, was this.
2. Back when I took the MT bearish view (mid Mar), it was well justified as two significant #banks had fallen, $CS was getting back on the radar screen, #deposit outflows continued, and demand for the #Fed emergency programs was rising.
It was questionable whether $KRE and $XLF
3. would stabilize.
The incentives for #deposit outflows were still present (#Fed hadn‘t yielded to market pressures to ease, and still doesn‘t, short-term #yields kept solidly above 5%, #Fed balance sheet kept declining, #M2 and #margin debt shrinking while consumer #inflation
Read 17 tweets
1/15: I was recently called a “China Macro Tourist”, so I decided to do the following and give a chance to everyone to find out about China’s Macro reality for themselves.

Since the best way of learning is by doing, I will set a few questions so that everyone who doubts to find……
2/15 a: We start from the GDP: China’s GDP is an input number and not an output figure like in Western economies. National accounts are based on data collected by local governments, which are rewarded for meeting growth targets; hence, local governments are incentivised to skew……
2/15 b: The Brookings Institution, in a research paper published in March 2019, estimated that China's GDP growth from 2008-2016 could be 1.7% (annually) lower than publicly acknowledged. I am confident China did not stop there. What happens if China’s GDP is 20% lower than most……
Read 19 tweets
Na celém dění kolem kolapsu @SVB_Financial jsou klíčové jenom dvě otázky. Proč banka zkolabovala a má její pád potenciál rozšířit se do zbytku amerického bankovního sektoru? Takže jdeme na to ... 🧵
@SVB_Financial nebyla žádná nová nebo malá banka. Založená byla už v roce 1983 a jejím primárním cílem bylo poskytovat bankovní a finanční služby segmentu technologických firem, firmám rizikového kapitálu (VC) a start-up firmám.
Mezi klienty firmy patřily těžké váhy tech sektoru, jako @Pinterest, @ZipRecruiter nebo @Shopify . Banka měla ke konci roku 2022 aktiva v objemu 209mld $ a byla mezi TOP 20 amerických komerčních bank. Její pád je největší od kolapsu Washington Mutual v roce 2008.
Read 10 tweets
I was asked about why there are differences in #TEDSPREAD values/plotting, so here’s what you should know. The acronym “TED” is derived from #TREASURIES minus #EURODOLLARS & expresses the difference between theoretically risk free yield & yield with embedded credit risk (cont)…
…classically TED spreads are plotted using same term cash #TREASURY bills against #LIBOR yields. Most often the terms used are 1M & 3M month tenors, though overnight tenors can also be used. Of course any risk free rate can be used such as #SOFR, as in my previous post (cont)…
If you’re wanting to trade #TED spreads using futures and/or you don’t have access to an #EIKON or Bloomberg terminal for cash plots you can construct/trade a viable version of them synthetically using 2Y #TREASURY & #EURODOLLAR futures which is very common (cont)… $ZT $ED $GE
Read 19 tweets
Let's talk about what happened in TIPS (inflation-protected #Treasuries) at the end of the US trading day yesterday. 🧵
What we *know* happened is that benchmark yields -- already higher on the day -- shot up quite a bit more between 3pm and 4pm, with the 5Y reaching a YTD high. Image
What we can *surmise* happened is that it had something to do with month-end index rebalancing.
Read 12 tweets
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 50 basis points (bps), to between 0.75% and 1.0%, and announced the start of #runoff of the central bank’s balance sheet.
As previously suggested by the #Fed’s March minutes, the pace of runoff was confirmed today as $95 billion/month ($60 billion in U.S. #Treasuries and $35 billion in Agency #MBS, with a three-month phase-in period.
Also as expected, the statement reiterated that the #FOMC “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” underscoring the seriousness of #Fed policymakers in getting #inflation and inflation expectations under control.
Read 16 tweets
1/ The #PhysicalVersusPaper discussion and the effect on silver’s price can be a heated topic. Part of the last “#spaces” event we touched on various #derivative products constructed by BofA and JP Morgan.
2/ Expanding on this topic where #Silver (the actual metal) is used as a ploy to create publicly traded #investments, let’s look at 2 more traded #securities.
3/ Just like buying processed food, what is on the front of the box may not necessarily have anything to do with the actual ingredients listed on the back label. Remember to read the #nutritional facts in the prospectus before consuming.
Read 11 tweets
Positive Real Interest Rates are required to reduce inflation.
Negative Real IR's do not help rein prices.
This little much cannot be understood by the central bankers in high-inflation economies?
That works if the source of inflation is the money supply growth due to the deficit
However, if the source of #inflation is supply-side shocks, then raising policy interest rates might hurt more.
For e.g. the Exchange rate shock which brings in imported inflation into the economy needs forex supply to counter the import/outflow demand.
IR is the painful lever
yes, a higher CB Rate should technically curb aggregate demand and expenditures in the economy.
It can reduce the domestic money supply as bank borrowing declines and thereby reduces the monetary base.
Which should taper the imports & adjust the Current a/c.
Shock Therapy 101
Read 9 tweets
Time for a look at tomorrow's 5Y TIPS new-issue auction. $TIP #Treasuries 1/
The last couple of October 5Y TIPS auctions (in 2020 and 2019) went off at yields significantly lower than the yields on the previous issue, from April, despite maturing six months later. 2/
That's mostly because Oct-maturing issues accrue inflation for six months after the April-maturing issues stop accruing & those months (March-Aug) historically have been better months for inflation than Sept-Feb, when discounting is rampant & gasoline demand is lower. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Spot gold < $1,720, -1.04%;
Spot silver <$26.38, -1.46%.
#gold #silver $XAU $SLV #XAUUSD Image
Spot silver extends its decline to 2%.
#silver $SLV
#US #treasuries extend slide; 10-year yield to session high 1.472%.
Read 4 tweets
Is Everything a Bubble❓Part 2 Recap 🔥

Most seem to think so... but don't take our word for it.

Have a look for yourself 👇 as we take you into the lions den to hear from the lions themselves.
🔥Adapting to New Market Nuances and the Golden Age of Macro🔥@JulianMI2

Are we in a bubble❓

“Yes, but it's somewhat nuanced. There's unquestionably single assets that are bubbles."

"There's groups of assets which are arguably excessively valued."
Specifically which names are bubbles❓

“There is absolutely no question that if I look at a chart of $TSLA, this is a classic bubble.”
Read 23 tweets
Our expectation is that the #Fed will purchase roughly equivalent to at least $1.5 trillion in #Treasuries over the remainder of the year (~$200 billion per month).
With asset purchasing in roughly these amounts, as well as everything the #Fed has already done, the magnitude of the #policy response to this #economic crisis is simply stunning.
In fact, by year end, we anticipate the #Fed’s balance sheet will have grown by a staggering $7 trillion in an effort to deal with the fallout of the #CoronavirusCrisis, or a pace of nearly $26 billion per day over a 270-day window.
Read 4 tweets
Lets talk about #Argentina and the #IMF. Specifically, lets talk about the biggest IMF #Bailout in #History...
Before we start talking about #Argentina & how the #IMF has extended to them a #Bailout that is by far the biggest in the organisation's history, let us first appreciate what the functions of the IMF are...
The #IMF’s main goal is to ensure #stability of the #international #monetary & #financial #system. It helps resolve crises, and works with its 189 member countries to promote #growth & alleviate #poverty...
Read 12 tweets
Read 819 tweets
🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇮🇷 #Canada arrests #Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Vancouver – The Globe and Mail…
A gauge of #technology shares on the MSCI #Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 3 percent before paring some losses - Bloomberg
🇺🇸 #SPX ⬇ as much as 1.9% from Tuesday’s close, before paring some losses. Selling pressure early in the session was so intense that it forced CME Group to intermittently pause trading, according to a spokesperson for the exchange - Bloomberg
Read 736 tweets

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